#USDMXN @ 18.0950 rallies on sentiment deterioration, triggering flows toward the safety of the US Dollar. (Pivot Orderbook analysis)
…
This is a premium post.
[s2If !current_user_can(access_s2member_level4)]Please register for FREE REGISTER to read full post below containing analysis. In case of any error or you think you are not able to read the full post below, please email us at support#nehcap.com [lwa][/s2If] [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]
- USD/MXN rallies on sentiment deterioration, triggering flows toward the safety of the US Dollar.
- Reports by Federal Reserve’s Regional Banks showed the US economy is stagnating.
- Banxico is set to pause its tightening cycle, as the latest inflation report in Mexico showed that prices are easing.
The pair currently trades last at 18.0950.
The previous day high was 18.0479 while the previous day low was 17.966. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 17.9973, expected to provide support. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 18.0166, expected to provide support.
The USD/MXN shows flashes of recovery and rallies more than 0.70% on sentiment deterioration, thus denting appetite for the emerging market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN). The First Republic Bank, which took over the troubled Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), missed estimates and reignited March’s fears of a banking crisis. Therefore, the USD/MXN climbed and is trading at 18.1057.
Wall Street is set to finish the day with substantial losses. Reports that First Republic Bank witnessed greater-than-expected withdrawals in the first quarter turned the mood sour. Several Federal Reserve (Fed) Regional Banks released their Manufacturing and Services Indices, indicating that the slowdown in the US economy is persisting. Moreover, the Conference Board (CB) released the Consumer Confidence report for April, which was lower than the estimated 104 at 101.3. The report revealed that consumers are increasingly pessimistic about the economy and expect the labor market to weaken.
The USD/MXN reacted upwards once the North American session began, bouncing from daily lows at around 17.9504 and rising towards the daily high at 18.1444 before stabilizing around current exchange rates.
In the meantime, the greenback appreciated, as shown by the US Dollar Index (DXY) gaining 0.53$, at 101.942, despite US Treasury bond yields falling. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that the odds for a 25 bps rate hike at the May meeting diminished from 84% in the early New York session to 76.6%.
In other data, US New Home Sales in March rose by 683K above estimates of 632K, a signal that easing mortgage rates is helping curb the housing market.
Due to the lack of economic data in the Mexican economic agenda, the latest inflation report showed that it slowed down to 6.24% in April, its lowest level since October 2021. Nevertheless, core inflation remained at 7.75% for the first half of April, suggesting that the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) could pause its tightening cycle.
The USD/MXN continues tracking the 20-day EMA at 18.1170, as its dynamic resistance for the last couple of weeks. As of writing, it’s bracing to the EMA abovementioned, though it would need a daily close above it, to pave the way for further upside. If that scenario continues, the USD/MXN’s next resistance would be the 50-day EMA At 18.3222, followed by the April MTD high at 18.4010. Conversely, the USD/MXN could dip towards 18.0000 before testing the daily low at 17.9505.
Technical Levels: Supports and Resistances
USDMXN currently trading at 18.1081 at the time of writing. Pair opened at 17.9822 and is trading with a change of 0.7 % .
| Overview | Overview.1 | |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Today last price | 18.1081 |
| 1 | Today Daily Change | 0.1259 |
| 2 | Today Daily Change % | 0.7000 |
| 3 | Today daily open | 17.9822 |
The pair is trading above its 20 Daily moving average @ 18.0938, below its 50 Daily moving average @ 18.3032 , below its 100 Daily moving average @ 18.7448 and below its 200 Daily moving average @ 19.3433
| Trends | Trends.1 | |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Daily SMA20 | 18.0938 |
| 1 | Daily SMA50 | 18.3032 |
| 2 | Daily SMA100 | 18.7448 |
| 3 | Daily SMA200 | 19.3433 |
The previous day high was 18.0479 while the previous day low was 17.966. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 17.9973, expected to provide support. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 18.0166, expected to provide support.
Note the levels of interest below:
- Pivot support is noted at 17.9495, 17.9168, 17.8676
- Pivot resistance is noted at 18.0314, 18.0806, 18.1133
| Levels | Levels.1 |
|---|---|
| Previous Daily High | 18.0479 |
| Previous Daily Low | 17.9660 |
| Previous Weekly High | 18.1542 |
| Previous Weekly Low | 17.9329 |
| Previous Monthly High | 19.2324 |
| Previous Monthly Low | 17.8977 |
| Daily Fibonacci 38.2% | 17.9973 |
| Daily Fibonacci 61.8% | 18.0166 |
| Daily Pivot Point S1 | 17.9495 |
| Daily Pivot Point S2 | 17.9168 |
| Daily Pivot Point S3 | 17.8676 |
| Daily Pivot Point R1 | 18.0314 |
| Daily Pivot Point R2 | 18.0806 |
| Daily Pivot Point R3 | 18.1133 |
[/s2If]
Nehcap Expert Advisor
The NEHCAP MT4 EA is high quality professional trading system geared to generate returns without using GRID or martingales. Each trade has strict risk per trade parameter. The pairs under management include EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDCAD, AUDNZD,GBPAUD, EURAUD, EURCAD, CHFJPY and many more.
The system is trading live: LIVE ACCOUNT TRACKING
You can run it free. Apply for a free trial and track our account. Buy the system or use profit share mechanism to generate returns on your MT4.
Join Our Telegram Group
