WTI crude oil portrays corrective bounce at four-week low. (Pivot Orderbook analysis)
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- WTI crude oil portrays corrective bounce at four-week low.
- US Dollar rebound, recession woes drowned the black gold previously despite higher inventory draw.
- US GDP, risk catalysts eyed for clear directions amid bearish concerns about energy benchmark.
The pair currently trades last at 74.5.
The previous day high was 77.86 while the previous day low was 74.02. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 75.49, expected to provide resistance. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 76.39, expected to provide resistance.
WTI crude oil licks its wounds at a monthly low surrounding $74.00, mildly bid near $74.45 heading into Thursday’s European session, as markets brace for the US first quarter (Q1) Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In doing so, the black gold snaps a two-day downtrend while consolidating the biggest daily loss in 1.5 months.
That said, the energy benchmark’s latest rebound could be linked to the downbeat US Dollar and cautious optimism in the market. However, anxiety ahead of the key US data prods the Oil buyers.
The energy benchmark’s previous day’s fall could be linked to the US Dollar’s corrective bounce off the lowest levels in two weeks, as well as the risk-off mood in the market. It’s worth noting that the quote’s weakness ignored price-positive stockpile data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), as well as from the industry source American Petroleum Institute (API).
It should be noted that the recent concerns surrounding the US-China tussle and Russia’s hard stand appear challenging the Oil bears. Earlier in the day, China’s Industrial Profits also improved and allowed WTI to pause the previous downside.
That said, comments from US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo renewed fears about the geopolitical tension among the world’s top two economies. “Chinese cloud computing companies like Huawei Cloud and Alibaba Cloud could pose a threat to US security,’ Said US Commerce Secretary Raimondo per Reuters. The policymaker also vowed to review a request to add them to an export control list reported the news.
Elsewhere, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak shrugged off challenges to Moscow due to Western sanctions and energy price caps on Wednesday. The policymaker also praised OPEC+ as he said, “Without OPEC and its allies (OPEC+), there are risks to energy security.”
On a different page, upbeat earnings from Microsoft and Google’s parent Alphabet Inc. allowed Nasdaq to remain firmer. However, the escalating fears from the First Republic Bank (FRB), due to another 20% share price fall on Wednesday following a 50% slump the previous day, weigh on the sentiment and prod the Oil buyers.
Against this backdrop, the US stock futures print mild gains and the US Dollar Index, as well as the US Treasury bond yields, grind lower.
Looking forward, recession woes highlight today’s US Q1 GDP figures and hence any negative surprise could weigh on the WTI crude oil price.
A clear downside break of 100-DMA keeps WTI crude oil bears hopeful of revisiting February’s low of $72.50.
Technical Levels: Supports and Resistances
XTIUSD currently trading at 74.5 at the time of writing. Pair opened at 74.31 and is trading with a change of 0.26% % .
| Overview | Overview.1 | |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Today last price | 74.5 |
| 1 | Today Daily Change | 0.19 |
| 2 | Today Daily Change % | 0.26% |
| 3 | Today daily open | 74.31 |
The pair remains strongly bearish on the daily time frame. It trades below the 20 SMA @ 79.03, 50 SMA 76.24, 100 SMA @ 76.92 and 200 SMA @ 81.83.
| Trends | Trends.1 | |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Daily SMA20 | 79.03 |
| 1 | Daily SMA50 | 76.24 |
| 2 | Daily SMA100 | 76.92 |
| 3 | Daily SMA200 | 81.83 |
The previous day high was 77.86 while the previous day low was 74.02. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 75.49, expected to provide resistance. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 76.39, expected to provide resistance.
Note the levels of interest below:
- Pivot support is noted at 72.94, 71.56, 69.1
- Pivot resistance is noted at 76.77, 79.23, 80.61
| Levels | Levels.1 |
|---|---|
| Previous Daily High | 77.86 |
| Previous Daily Low | 74.02 |
| Previous Weekly High | 82.61 |
| Previous Weekly Low | 76.69 |
| Previous Monthly High | 80.99 |
| Previous Monthly Low | 64.39 |
| Daily Fibonacci 38.2% | 75.49 |
| Daily Fibonacci 61.8% | 76.39 |
| Daily Pivot Point S1 | 72.94 |
| Daily Pivot Point S2 | 71.56 |
| Daily Pivot Point S3 | 69.10 |
| Daily Pivot Point R1 | 76.77 |
| Daily Pivot Point R2 | 79.23 |
| Daily Pivot Point R3 | 80.61 |
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