#AUDUSD @ 0.66198 gains some positive traction on Thursday, albeit lacks bullish conviction. (Pivot Orderbook analysis)
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- AUD/USD gains some positive traction on Thursday, albeit lacks bullish conviction.
- A modest recovery in the risk sentiment undermines the USD and lends support.
- Traders now look to the Advance US Q1 GDP report for short-term opportunities.
The pair currently trades last at 0.66198.
The previous day high was 0.6639 while the previous day low was 0.6592. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 0.661, expected to provide support. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 0.6621, expected to provide resistance.
The AUD/USD pair once again shows resilience below the 0.6600 mark and attracts some buying on Thursday, snapping a two-day losing streak to its lowest level since mid-March touched the previous day. The pair maintains its bid tone through the early part of the European session, albeit lacks bullish conviction.
The uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s rate-hike path fails to assist the US Dollar (USD) to capitalize on the overnight bounce from a nearly two-week low, which, in turn, is seen lending some support to the AUD/USD pair. Fresh concerns about banking contagion risks in the United States (US), along with the debt ceiling standoff and looming recession fears, have been fueling speculations about an imminent rate cut by the Fed later this year. Apart from this, a slight recovery in the global risk sentiment – as depicted by a stable performance around the equity markets – further undermines the safe-haven buck and benefits the risk-sensitive Aussie.
The markets, meanwhile, seem convinced that the US central bank will hike interest rates by another 25 bps at the next FOMC policy meeting in May. This remains supportive of a further rise in the US Treasury bond yields, which acts as a tailwind for the Greenback and keeps a lid on any further gains for the AUD/USD pair. Traders also seem reluctant and preferred to wait on the sidelines ahead of the release of the Advance US Q1 GDP report, due later during the early North American session. The growth in the world’s largest economy is anticipated to slow to a 2% annualized pace during the January-March period from the 2.6% rise in the previous quarter.
Any significant divergence from the expected reading might infuse some volatility around the USD and provide a fresh impetus to the AUD/USD pair. The focus will then shift to the US Core PCE Price Index – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – on Friday, which will play a key role in influencing the near-term USD price dynamics and help determine the near-term trajectory for the major.
Technical Levels: Supports and Resistances
AUDUSD currently trading at 0.6617 at the time of writing. Pair opened at 0.6601 and is trading with a change of 0.24 % .
| Overview | Overview.1 | |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Today last price | 0.6617 |
| 1 | Today Daily Change | 0.0016 |
| 2 | Today Daily Change % | 0.2400 |
| 3 | Today daily open | 0.6601 |
The pair remains strongly bearish on the daily time frame. It trades below the 20 SMA @ 0.6698, 50 SMA 0.6708, 100 SMA @ 0.6796 and 200 SMA @ 0.674.
| Trends | Trends.1 | |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Daily SMA20 | 0.6698 |
| 1 | Daily SMA50 | 0.6708 |
| 2 | Daily SMA100 | 0.6796 |
| 3 | Daily SMA200 | 0.6740 |
The previous day high was 0.6639 while the previous day low was 0.6592. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 0.661, expected to provide support. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 0.6621, expected to provide resistance.
Note the levels of interest below:
- Pivot support is noted at 0.6582, 0.6563, 0.6534
- Pivot resistance is noted at 0.663, 0.6658, 0.6677
| Levels | Levels.1 |
|---|---|
| Previous Daily High | 0.6639 |
| Previous Daily Low | 0.6592 |
| Previous Weekly High | 0.6772 |
| Previous Weekly Low | 0.6678 |
| Previous Monthly High | 0.6784 |
| Previous Monthly Low | 0.6564 |
| Daily Fibonacci 38.2% | 0.6610 |
| Daily Fibonacci 61.8% | 0.6621 |
| Daily Pivot Point S1 | 0.6582 |
| Daily Pivot Point S2 | 0.6563 |
| Daily Pivot Point S3 | 0.6534 |
| Daily Pivot Point R1 | 0.6630 |
| Daily Pivot Point R2 | 0.6658 |
| Daily Pivot Point R3 | 0.6677 |
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