#AUDUSD @ 0.66016 drops to its lowest level since mid-March in reaction to softer domestic CPI print. (Pivot Orderbook analysis)
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- AUD/USD drops to its lowest level since mid-March in reaction to softer domestic CPI print.
- The emergence of fresh USD selling lends some support to the major and helps limit losses.
- Traders now look forward to the US Durable Goods Orders data for short-term opportunities.
The pair currently trades last at 0.66016.
The previous day high was 0.6706 while the previous day low was 0.6614. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 0.6649, expected to provide resistance. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 0.6671, expected to provide resistance.
The AUD/USD pair adds to the previous day’s heavy losses and remains under some selling pressure for the second successive day on Wednesday. The pair maintains its offered tone through the first half of the European session and is currently placed around the 0.6600 mark, or its lowest level since mid-March.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) weakens across the board after the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that the headline CPI eased from 1.9% to 1.4% during the March quarter, marking the smallest increase since late 2021. Furthermore, the annual CPI decelerated to 7.0% from 7.8% and suggests that inflation might have finally peaked. Adding to this, the softer core CPI eases pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia for another hike in interest rates and drags the AUD/USD pair lower.
The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, comes under some renewed selling pressure and erodes a major part of the overnight strong gains, which, in turn, is holding back bearish traders from placing aggressive bets around the AUD/USD pair. Fresh concerns about the regional banking sector crisis, the possibility of an imminent recession and worries about the US debt ceiling lift bets for an imminent rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) later this year, which, in turn, weigh on the Greenback.
Apart from this, a modest bounce in the US equity futures exerts additional downward pressure on the safe-haven buck and contributes to limiting losses for the AUD/USD pair, at least for the time being. Nevertheless, the aforementioned fundamental still seems tilted in favour of bearish traders and supports prospects for additional losses. Hence, a subsequent fall back towards challenging the YTD low, around the 0.6570-0.6565 region, looks like a distinct possibility.
Market participants now look to the US Durable Goods Orders data, due later during the early North American session, for a fresh impetus. The focus, however, remains glued to the US Q1 GDP report on Thursday and the Core PCE Price Index – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge on Friday. The crucial US inflation data will influence the near-term USD price dynamics and help determine the next leg of a directional move for the AUD/USD pair.
Technical Levels: Supports and Resistances
AUDUSD currently trading at 0.6602 at the time of writing. Pair opened at 0.6626 and is trading with a change of -0.36 % .
| Overview | Overview.1 | |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Today last price | 0.6602 |
| 1 | Today Daily Change | -0.0024 |
| 2 | Today Daily Change % | -0.3600 |
| 3 | Today daily open | 0.6626 |
The pair remains strongly bearish on the daily time frame. It trades below the 20 SMA @ 0.6702, 50 SMA 0.6714, 100 SMA @ 0.6797 and 200 SMA @ 0.6741.
| Trends | Trends.1 | |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Daily SMA20 | 0.6702 |
| 1 | Daily SMA50 | 0.6714 |
| 2 | Daily SMA100 | 0.6797 |
| 3 | Daily SMA200 | 0.6741 |
The previous day high was 0.6706 while the previous day low was 0.6614. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 0.6649, expected to provide resistance. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 0.6671, expected to provide resistance.
Note the levels of interest below:
- Pivot support is noted at 0.6592, 0.6558, 0.6501
- Pivot resistance is noted at 0.6683, 0.674, 0.6774
| Levels | Levels.1 |
|---|---|
| Previous Daily High | 0.6706 |
| Previous Daily Low | 0.6614 |
| Previous Weekly High | 0.6772 |
| Previous Weekly Low | 0.6678 |
| Previous Monthly High | 0.6784 |
| Previous Monthly Low | 0.6564 |
| Daily Fibonacci 38.2% | 0.6649 |
| Daily Fibonacci 61.8% | 0.6671 |
| Daily Pivot Point S1 | 0.6592 |
| Daily Pivot Point S2 | 0.6558 |
| Daily Pivot Point S3 | 0.6501 |
| Daily Pivot Point R1 | 0.6683 |
| Daily Pivot Point R2 | 0.6740 |
| Daily Pivot Point R3 | 0.6774 |
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