#GBPUSD @ 1.24988 remains trading nearby the YTD highs hit at 1.2525. (Pivot Orderbook analysis)

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• GBP/USD remains trading nearby the YTD highs hit at 1.2525.
• US JOLTs reports drop to the lowest level in two years; could this be a prelude to a jump in the Unemployment Rate?
• BoE Pill focused on incoming data to decide his stance at the May meeting.

The pair currently trades last at 1.24988.

The previous day high was 1.2424 while the previous day low was 1.2275. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 1.2367, expected to provide support. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 1.2332, expected to provide support.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) climbs above 1.2500 and hits a new YTD high at 1.2525, on risk on impulse in the FX space and overall US Dollar (USD) weakness. Economic data released in the United States (US) flashes the economy is slowing down, a headwind for the greenback. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD is trading at 1.2499, above its opening price by 0.72%.

Wall Street reversed its course and turned red. The US JOLTs reports, sought by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) as they monitor labor market data, dropped to their lowest level in two years. Figures showed a decrease of 32K to 9.9 million job openings on the last day of February, its lowest since May 2021. Meanwhile, Factory Orders in the US fell for two consecutive months, printing a 0.7% MoM plunge, worst than an estimated contraction of 0.5%, according to the US Commerce Department.

On the data release, the GBP/USD increased from around 1.2465 to its new YTD high at 1.2525. The Fed has constantly reiterated the tightness of the labor market, and a decrease in job vacancies, could help inflation to continue its downward trajectory. Despite OPEC’s latest crude oil production cut, that could make Fed’s job easier.

On Wednesday, the ADP Employment Change report, followed by jobless claims on Thursday, and the US Nonfarm Payrolls data, would update the effect of higher rates on the labor market.

On the UK front, Bank of England (BoE) speakers had been crossing the wires. Of late, the BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill commented that his May rate decision would be focused on “data flow and its interpretation in the forecast.” Earlier, Sylvana Tenreyro, a BoE Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member, said that a “looser stance is needed to meet the inflation target.”

From a daily chart perspective, the GBP/USD turned bullish after cracking the February 14 daily high of 1.2270. Additionally, oscillators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Rate of Change (RoC) justified the case for higher prices. RSI is still in bullish territory, with space before turning overbought. For a bullish continuation, the GBP/USD must achieve a daily close above 1.2500 to test the newly hit YTD high at 1.2525. A breach of the latter will expose the June 7 high at 1.2599, with upside risks at May 27 daily high at 1.2667. Otherwise, a daily close below 1.2500 could pave the way for a pullback. The first demand area would be 1.2400, followed by the 20-day EMA at 1.2274.

Technical Levels: Supports and Resistances

GBPUSD currently trading at 1.2497 at the time of writing. Pair opened at 1.2413 and is trading with a change of 0.68 % .

The pair remains strongly bullish on the daily timeframe. It trades above its 20 SMA @ 1.2183, 50 SMA 1.215, 100 SMA @ 1.2136 and 200 SMA @ 1.1896.

The previous day high was 1.2424 while the previous day low was 1.2275. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 1.2367, expected to provide support. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 1.2332, expected to provide support.

Note the levels of interest below:

• Pivot support is noted at 1.2317, 1.2221, 1.2168
• Pivot resistance is noted at 1.2466, 1.2519, 1.2615

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