#USDCHF @ 0.91609 holds lower grounds after declining the most since late November. (Pivot Orderbook analysis)

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• USD/CHF holds lower grounds after declining the most since late November.
• Broad US Dollar weakness favored bears despite downbeat Swiss Retail Sales.
• Softer US Employment Cost Index, Consumer Confidence joined firmer equities to weigh on USD ahead of Fed’s verdict.
• Fed’s 0.25% rate hike is almost given and hence Powell need to save the USD with his hawkish statements.

The pair currently trades last at 0.91609.

The previous day high was 0.9257 while the previous day low was 0.9182. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 0.9228, expected to provide resistance. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 0.9211, expected to provide resistance.

USD/CHF steadies around 0.9160 after marking the biggest daily slump in nearly 2.5 months the previous day. The Swiss currency pair’s fall on Tuesday could be linked to the broad US Dollar weakness and the firmer equities, which in turn enabled the quote to ignore downbeat data at home.

That said, the Swiss Retail Sales for December slumped to -2.8% YoY versus 2.6% expected and -1.4% prior.

On the other hand, the US Employment Cost Index (ECI) for the fourth quarter (Q4) gained major attention as it eased to 1.0% versus 1.1% market forecasts and 1.2% prior readings. Further, the Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence eased to 107.10 in January versus 108.3 prior. It should be noted that no major attention could be given to the US Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for January which rose to 44.3 versus 41 expected and 44.9 previous readings.

Further, upbeat Wall Street closing, due to firmer earnings from industry majors like General Motors, Exxon and McDonalds, also exert downside pressure on the US Treasury bond yields and favored the US Dollar bears.

Amid these plays, the US Dollar Index (DXY) snapped a three-day rebound, staying defensive near 102.00 by the press time.

Moving on, multiple US PMIs for January may entertain USD/CHF pair traders ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision. Even so, major attention will be on how Fed Chairman Jerome Powell could defend his hawkish bias as the 0.25% rate hike is already priced-in.

Also read: Federal Reserve Preview: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly, why the US Dollar would rise

A clear downside break of the two-week-old ascending trend line, now immediate resistance around 0.9205, directs USD/CHF towards the previous monthly low of 0.9085.

Technical Levels: Supports and Resistances

USDCHF currently trading at 0.9159 at the time of writing. Pair opened at 0.9253 and is trading with a change of -1.02% % .

The pair remains strongly bearish on the daily time frame. It trades below the 20 SMA @ 0.9245, 50 SMA 0.9312, 100 SMA @ 0.9567 and 200 SMA @ 0.963.

The previous day high was 0.9257 while the previous day low was 0.9182. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 0.9228, expected to provide resistance. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 0.9211, expected to provide resistance.

Note the levels of interest below:

• Pivot support is noted at 0.9205, 0.9156, 0.913
• Pivot resistance is noted at 0.9279, 0.9305, 0.9354

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