Dollar soft as risk sentiment improves – BBH

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Strong earnings reports from the big tech companies last night have helped improve market sentiment and weigh on the US Dollar, write Economists at BBH. DXY is trading lower near 101.269 and has given back nearly all of yesterday’s gains.

“WIRP suggests over 80% odds of 25 bp hike at the May 2-3 meeting, down from 90% at the start of this week and back to the 80% seen at the start of last week and 70% at the start of the week before that. We believe a hike next week is a done deal. There are no longer any odds of another 25 bp hike in June, down from about 15% at the start of this week. Between the May 2-3 and June 13-14 meetings, the Fed will have digested two more job reports, two CPI/PPI reports, and one retail sales report. At this point, a pause in June might just be the most likely outcome but it really will depend on how all that data come in. After all that, two cuts are now priced in by year-end vs. one at the start of this week and back to two seen at the start of last week. In that regard, Powell has said that Fed officials “just don’t see” any rate cuts this year. We concur.”

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