#USDINR @ 81.9730 is attempting a break above 82.00 ahead of US Durable Goods Orders data. (Pivot Orderbook analysis)

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• USD/INR is attempting a break above 82.00 ahead of US Durable Goods Orders data.
• An expansion in orders for Durable Goods to manufacturers indicates strong demand from households.
• Bottoming out US real estate despite higher interest rates from the Fed indicates that recession is not in picture for now.

The pair currently trades last at 81.9730.

The previous day high was 82.0416 while the previous day low was 81.8432. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 81.9658, expected to provide support. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 81.9189, expected to provide support.

The USD/INR pair is making efforts to break above the immediate resistance of 82.00 in the Asian session. The asset is expected to discount the overnight gains in the US Dollar index (DXY) supported by a recovery in the United States real estate market.

Upbeat New Home Sales data in the US economy trimmed the risk of soon recession as investors believe that more construction proposals will strengthen the labor market further and also consumer spending is rising. Usually, the impact of recession is first observed in the property sector, and bottoming out real estate despite higher interest rates from the Federal Reserve (Fed) indicates that recession is not in picture for now.

At the time of writing, the USD Index is consolidating in a nominal range above 101.80 as investors are awaiting the monthly US Durable Goods Orders data (March) for further guidance. The street is anticipating an expansion of 0.8% against a contraction of 1.0%.

An expansion in orders for Durable Goods to manufacturers indicates strong demand from households, which could keep the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) stubborn ahead and may force the Fed to remain hawkish while delivering guidance on interest rates.

On the oil front, oil prices have gradually advanced to near $77.50 in the Asian session after declining to a three-week low at $76.60. The oil price is expected to show a volatile action ahead of the release of the inventory data by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).

It is worth noting that India is one of the leading importers of oil in the world and a recovery in the oil price will impact the Indian rupee.

Technical Levels: Supports and Resistances

USDINR currently trading at 81.9679 at the time of writing. Pair opened at 81.9979 and is trading with a change of -0.04 % .

The pair is trading below its 20 Daily moving average @ 82.0216, below its 50 Daily moving average @ 82.2735 , below its 100 Daily moving average @ 82.25 and above its 200 Daily moving average @ 81.5454

The previous day high was 82.0416 while the previous day low was 81.8432. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 81.9658, expected to provide support. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 81.9189, expected to provide support.

Note the levels of interest below:

• Pivot support is noted at 81.8802, 81.7625, 81.6818
• Pivot resistance is noted at 82.0786, 82.1593, 82.277

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