#USDCAD @ 1.36126 fails to defend the first daily gain in three, prints minor loss of late. (Pivot Orderbook analysis)

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• USD/CAD fails to defend the first daily gain in three, prints minor loss of late.
• Oil price initially cheered softer US Dollar, China demand hopes before the shift in mood probed the commodity buyers.
• Downbeat Canada PMI, improvement in US Factory Orders allowed Loonie bulls to sneak in before the latest retreat.
• Fed Chair Powell’s Semi-Annual Testimony, China trade data can offer immediate directions but Canada, US job reports are the key.

The pair currently trades last at 1.36126.

The previous day high was 1.3644 while the previous day low was 1.3555. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 1.3589, expected to provide support. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 1.361, expected to provide support.

USD/CAD retreats to 1.3610, after an upbeat start to the week, as the Loonie pair cheers a pause in the Oil price while the US Dollar pares recent losses during early Tuesday.

That said, the Oil price rose in the last consecutive five days to the highest levels in three weeks. However, black gold recently had mild losses of around $80.55 by the press time. The reason could be linked to the market’s cautious mood ahead of the key data/events, as well as a rebound in the US Dollar.

US Dollar Index (DXY) began the week on a back foot around 104.60 before closing in the red for the second consecutive day. The US Dollar’s weakness allowed commodities and Antipodeans to remain firmer. However, the firmer US Treasury bond yields and fears emanating from China, as well as the recently firmer US data, allowed the greenback to pare some of its previous losses.

US 10-year Treasury bond yields initially dropped to a one-week low of 3.897% before ending the day with mild gains near 3.96%. On the same line, the two-year counterpart ended Monday’s North American trading session with 0.60% intraday gains at 4.88%.

Elsewhere, China eyed the modest 5.0% economic growth in its annual session of the National People’s Congress (NPC), versus 6.0% market forecasts, which in turn raised doubts on the health of the world’s biggest commodity user and put a floor under the US Dollar price, as well as the USD/CAD.

On the same line, were comments from outgoing China Premier Li Keqiang as he said, “China should promote the peaceful development of cross-Strait relations and advance the process of China’s ‘peaceful reunification’, but also take resolute steps to oppose Taiwan independence.”

Talking about the data, US Factory Orders for January improved to -1.6% MoM versus -1.8% expected and -1.7% prior. Previously, softer prints of the US ISM Services PMI for February, as well as the Durable Goods Orders for January and the Conference Board’s (CB) Consumer Confidence for February, questioned the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) ‘higher for longer’ plan.

Amid these plays, Wall Street closed mixed and the S&P 500 Futures print

Looking ahead, China’s monthly trade numbers and headlines from the NPC can entertain USD/CAD traders ahead of the semi-annual Testimony of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell. Fed’s Powell appears before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday and should defend the US central bank’s hawkish bias to keep the USD/CAD bulls on the table.

Although the 100-DMA puts a floor under the USD/CAD price near the 1.3500 threshold, the quote’s upside appears limited by a one-month-old ascending resistance line, close to 1.3710 by the press time.

Technical Levels: Supports and Resistances

USDCAD currently trading at 1.3611 at the time of writing. Pair opened at 1.3593 and is trading with a change of 0.13% % .

The pair remains strongly bullish on the daily timeframe. It trades above its 20 SMA @ 1.349, 50 SMA 1.3459, 100 SMA @ 1.3502 and 200 SMA @ 1.3284.

The previous day high was 1.3644 while the previous day low was 1.3555. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 1.3589, expected to provide support. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 1.361, expected to provide support.

Note the levels of interest below:

• Pivot support is noted at 1.3551, 1.3508, 1.3461
• Pivot resistance is noted at 1.364, 1.3687, 1.3729

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