#XAUUSD @ 1,854.57 Gold price remains sidelined as bulls take a breather amid sluggish start to the key week., @nehcap view: Further upside expected (Pivot Orderbook analysis)

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• Gold price remains sidelined as bulls take a breather amid sluggish start to the key week.
• Mixed headlines from China, cautious mood ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s testimony, US NFP probe XAU/USD bulls.
• Convergence of 200-EMA, weekly bullish channel’s lower line limits immediate downside as US Dollar bears flex muscles.

The pair currently trades last at 1854.57.

The previous day high was 1856.35 while the previous day low was 1835.46. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 1848.37, expected to provide support. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 1843.44, expected to provide support.

Gold price (XAU/USD) remains mostly illiquid around $1,855 as traders brace for the key data/events during early Monday in Europe. Adding filters to the XAU/USD moves could be the mixed headlines from China, as well as the US Dollar’s inaction despite a pullback in the Treasury bond yields.

Starting with China, the National Development and Reform Commission of the People’s Republic of China (NDRC) recently said, it “Will further release the potential for consumption,” while also adding that China’s economy steadily improving, per Reuters. Earlier in the day, market sentiment turned sour after China’s annual session of the National People’s Congress (NPC) appeared a grim event due to its growth target and geopolitical concerns.

Elsewhere, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly highlighted the importance of incoming data to determine how high the rates can go. Previously, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic renewed concerns about the Fed’s policy pivot while Federal Reserve published a semi-annual Monetary Policy Report on Friday wherein it clearly said, “Ongoing increases in the Fed funds rate target are necessary.” The report also stated that the Fed is strongly committed to getting inflation back to 2%.

It should be noted that the US 10-year Treasury bond yields, rose to the highest levels since November 2022 in the last week before easing to 3.95% by the end of Friday, making rounds to the same level at the latest. More importantly, the US two-year bond coupons rose to the highest levels last seen in 2008 before retreating to 4.85% by the press time. That said, the S&P 500 Futures print mild gains, tracking Wall Street’s moves amid a light sluggish start to the key week, whereas the US Dollar Index (DXY) remains depressed around 104.45, down 0.05% intraday by the press time.

Moving ahead, Gold traders may witness further inaction in the market as traders remain cautious before the key events including Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Testimony, China’s inflation data and Friday’s US jobs report for February.

Although the overbought RSI (14) challenges the Gold buyers around $1,855, a convergence of the 200-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and bottom-line of a one-week-long bullish channel challenge the bears around $1,850.

It’s worth noting that the XAU/USD weakness past $1,850 could quickly drag the quote toward the mid-February swing low near $1,818, before highlighting the previous monthly trough surrounding $1,805 and the $1,800 threshold for the Gold bears.

Meanwhile, recovery moves may aim for the aforementioned channel’s top line, close to $1,878, ahead of targeting the February 09 swing high of $1,890.

In a case where the Gold buyers keep the reins past $1,890, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the metal’s weakness marked in February, as well as the January 31 swing low, around the $1,900 psychological magnet can act as the last defense of the XAU/USD bears.

Overall, Gold price teases bears amid an inactive day at the start of an all-important week.

Trend: Further upside expected

Technical Levels: Supports and Resistances

XAUUSD currently trading at 1854.2 at the time of writing. Pair opened at 1855.24 and is trading with a change of -0.06% % .

The pair is trading above its 20 Daily moving average @ 1843.7, below its 50 Daily moving average @ 1868.63 , above its 100 Daily moving average @ 1800.88 and above its 200 Daily moving average @ 1775.48

The previous day high was 1856.35 while the previous day low was 1835.46. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 1848.37, expected to provide support. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 1843.44, expected to provide support.

Note the levels of interest below:

• Pivot support is noted at 1841.68, 1828.13, 1820.79
• Pivot resistance is noted at 1862.57, 1869.91, 1883.46

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