#USDINR @ 82.2640 prints five-week losing streak as bears attack the lowest level in nearly a month. (Pivot Orderbook analysis)

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• USD/INR prints five-week losing streak as bears attack the lowest level in nearly a month.
• Hopes of robust economic recovery in India, hawkish RBI bets underpin INR strength.
• Fresh chatters surrounding Fed’s policy pivot weigh on prices.
• US ISM Services PMI should be eyed for intraday directions.

The pair currently trades last at 82.2640.

The previous day high was 82.66 while the previous day low was 82.3006. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 82.4379, expected to provide resistance. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 82.5227, expected to provide resistance.

USD/INR takes offers to refresh multi-day low near 82.20 amid a broad US Dollar pullback during early Friday. In doing so, the Indian Rupee (INR) pair drops to the lowest levels since February 09 during the five-day downtrend.

US Dollar Index (DXY) traces US Treasury bond yields to print mild losses around 104.90 by the press time. That said, the 10-year coupons drop two basis points to 4.05% whereas its two-year counterpart seesaws around 4.89% by the press time. It should be observed that the US 10-year Treasury bond yields rose to a fresh high since early November 2022 while piercing the 4.0% threshold whereas the two-year counterpart rallied to the highest levels since 2007 to 4.94% on Thursday.

The latest pullback in the US Treasury bond yields and the US Dollar could be linked to the fresh fears of the Federal Reserve (Fed) policy pivot. Also underpinning the USD/INR weakness could be the cautious optimism in Asia, mainly due to the strong China data. However, the anxiety ahead of the US ISM Services PMI for February seems to probe the pair sellers of late.

At home, hopes of witnessing a strong recovery of the Indian economy, despite marking downbeat Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for the fiscal third quarter (Q3) figures published in the last week. Also, hawkish bias surrounding the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) next move seems to exert downside pressure on the USD/INR pair.

Amid these plays, the USD/INR traders seem to witness additional downside unless hitting the 100-DMA support near 82.15. However, upbeat prints of the US ISM Services PMI, expected at 54.5 versus 55.2 prior readings, could propel the pair prices.

Also read: ISM Services PMI Preview: Strong figure set to catapult US Dollar to new highs

Despite the latest fall, a daily closing below the 100-DMA, around 82.15 by the press time, becomes necessary for the USD/INR bears to retake control. It’s worth noting that the RSI retreats on the daily chart and the MACD also prints bearish signals, which in turn favor the Indian Rupee pair’s latest weakness.

Technical Levels: Supports and Resistances

USDINR currently trading at 82.2384 at the time of writing. Pair opened at 82.3494 and is trading with a change of -0.13% % .

The pair is trading below its 20 Daily moving average @ 82.6771, below its 50 Daily moving average @ 82.2496 , above its 100 Daily moving average @ 82.1611 and above its 200 Daily moving average @ 80.8575

The previous day high was 82.66 while the previous day low was 82.3006. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 82.4379, expected to provide resistance. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 82.5227, expected to provide resistance.

Note the levels of interest below:

• Pivot support is noted at 82.2133, 82.0773, 81.8539
• Pivot resistance is noted at 82.5727, 82.796, 82.9321

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