The US Dollar Index is enjoying significant gains broadly amid uncertainty in global markets. (Pivot Orderbook analysis)

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• The US Dollar Index is enjoying significant gains broadly amid uncertainty in global markets.
• S&P500 faced immense pressure as Fed’s higher interest rate peak projection has triggered recession fears.
• A weaker-than-anticipated US Retail Sales might force firms to cut prices of goods and services.

The pair currently trades last at 104.49.

The previous day high was 104.88 while the previous day low was 103.54. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 104.37, expected to provide support. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 104.05, expected to provide support.

The US Dollar index (DXY) has witnessed a gradual decline to near 104.60 in the early Tokyo session. The USD Index slipped marginally after a rally to near 104.80 as investors underpinned the risk aversion theme amid soaring recession fears in the United States economy.

Risk-sensitive assets like S&P500 futures dived around 2.5% on Thursday as investors see a deep impact on firms that are debt-laden due to higher interest obligations. Firms are expected to display a significant fall in their operating margins. Federal Reserve (Fed) is still not convinced that inflation softening will continue further amid a tight labor market and rising Average Hourly Earnings.

Stellar recovery in the US Dollar after a higher interest rate peak projection by the Fed didn’t fade on Thursday’s downbeat Retail Sales data. The monthly Retail Sales data (Nov) reported a contraction of 0.6% while the street was expecting a contraction of 0.1%. A decline in retail demand indicates more downside pressure on inflation ahead as lower consumer spending is the key to a lower Consumer Price Index (CPI). This might force producers to cut prices of goods and services ahead.

For further guidance, market participants will keep an eye on the preliminary S&P Purchase Managers Index (PMI) data, which will release on Friday. As per the consensus, the Manufacturing PMI is seen unchanged at 47.7 while Service PMI would improve to 46.8 vs. the former release of 46.2. An improvement in preliminary PMI numbers might support the US Dollar further ahead.

Technical Levels: Supports and Resistances

EURUSD currently trading at 104.49 at the time of writing. Pair opened at 104.61 and is trading with a change of -0.11 % .

The pair remains strongly bearish on the daily time frame. It trades below the 20 SMA @ 105.16, 50 SMA 107.28, 100 SMA @ 109.04 and 200 SMA @ 106.43.

The previous day high was 104.88 while the previous day low was 103.54. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 104.37, expected to provide support. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 104.05, expected to provide support.

Note the levels of interest below:

• Pivot support is noted at 103.8, 103.0, 102.46
• Pivot resistance is noted at 105.15, 105.68, 106.49

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