#USDIDR @ 15,627.0 picks up bids on mixed prints of Indonesia trade data for November. (Pivot Orderbook analysis)

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• USD/IDR picks up bids on mixed prints of Indonesia trade data for November.
• Indonesia Trade Balance rose more-than-expected to $5.16 billion but Imports and Exports dropped.
• Indonesian Parliament’s move for Bank Indonesia also teases pair buyers.
• US Dollar reverses post-Fed losses amid cautious mood ahead of the key central bank announcements.

The pair currently trades last at 15627.0.

The previous day high was 15676.5 while the previous day low was 15533.2. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 15621.7594, expected to provide support. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 15587.9406, expected to provide support.

USD/IDR remains firmer around the intraday high of $15,640, close to $15,620 by the press time, as mixed Indonesia trade figures join fears of more burden for the Bank Indonesia (BI) during early Thursday. Also favoring the Indonesia Rupiah (IDR) bears is the US Dollar’s rebound from a six-month low as market sentiment dwindles ahead of the key central bank meetings and the US Retail Sales data.

Indonesia’s Trade Balance came in at $5.16 billion compared to the $4.25 billion expected and $5.67 billion prior while Imports slumped to -1.89% versus 7.0% market consensus and 17.44% previous readings. Further, Exports eased to 5.58% during the stated month versus 9.50% market forecasts and 12.3% previous readouts.

Earlier in the day, the Indonesian Parliament passed a law to increase the BI’s responsibilities. The new move will hold BI responsible for supporting economic growth and also formalizing the debt monetization operations for the country. “Called the ‘Development and Strengthening of Financial Sector’ bill, the new set of rules are also seen opening the door for ex-politicians to head Bank Indonesia (BI), raising concerns about its independence.”

On the other hand, the US Dollar Index (DXY) consolidates recent losses around 103.80 while bouncing off one-month-old support, as well as the six-month low, as traders turn cautious ahead of multiple central bank announcements. The US Dollar’s rebound could also be linked to the reassessment of the Fed verdict, suggesting a 50 bps rate hike and readiness to hold the rate higher for a longer period.

Amid these plays, S&P 500 Futures remain mildly offered but the US 10-year Treasury bond yields probe a two-day downtrend near 3.50%. Further, the US two-year bond yields also extend recovery from the monthly low while printing the first daily positive in three near 4.25%. It should be noted that Indonesia’s benchmark equity index, IDX Composite, prints mild losses of around 6,765 by the press time.

Looking forward, monetary policy announcements from the Swiss National Bank (SNB), European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BOE) could trigger the market’s volatility and propel US Dollar. Also important to watch will be the US Retail Sales for November, expected -0.1% MoM versus 1.3% prior.

Unless providing a daily close beyond the six-week-old descending resistance line, near $15,715 by the press time, the USD/IDR remains on the bear’s radar.

Technical Levels: Supports and Resistances

USDIDR currently trading at 15622.4 at the time of writing. Pair opened at 15574.2 and is trading with a change of 0.31% % .

The pair remains strongly bullish on the daily timeframe. It trades above its 20 SMA @ 15621.8175, 50 SMA 15565.112, 100 SMA @ 15248.7375 and 200 SMA @ 14928.0278.

The previous day high was 15676.5 while the previous day low was 15533.2. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 15621.7594, expected to provide support. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 15587.9406, expected to provide support.

Note the levels of interest below:

• Pivot support is noted at 15512.7667, 15451.3333, 15369.4667
• Pivot resistance is noted at 15656.0667, 15737.9333, 15799.3667

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