#AUDJPY @ 96.8680 extends a decline, testing back below 97.00. (Pivot Orderbook analysis)
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- AUD/JPY extends a decline, testing back below 97.00.
- Australian Trade Balance climbs after Imports steeply contract.
- Aussie home lending growth falls back, Chinese CPI contracts further.
The pair currently trades last at 96.8680.
The previous day high was 97.8 while the previous day low was 97.08. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 97.36, expected to provide resistance. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 97.53, expected to provide resistance.
The AUD/JPY extended declines into a second day on Friday, with the Aussie (AUD) shedding weight against the Japanese Yen (JPY) with broader markets bidding up the Yen with the AUD set to round out the week’s trading as the single worst performer of the major currency bloc.
The AUD/JPY is set to close in the red for the fourth of the last five consecutive trading days as Australian economic data continues to miss the mark. Australian Retail Sales beat expectations on a seasonally-adjusted basis early Wednesday, helping to keep the AUD bid into the midweek, but a steep decline in Australian Imports leading to a surprise buildup in the Aussie Trade Balance swamped out AUD bulls on Thursday, wit the downtrend continuing on Friday after Australian Investment Lending for Homes declined to 1.9% MoM in November compared to October’s 4.9% (revised down slightly from 5.0%).
China’s annualized Consumer Price Index (CPI) beat market expectations on Friday, but still contracted in December compared to the same month a year prior, declining 0.3% compared to November’s -0.5% YoY decline, slipping below the median market forecast of a -0.4% contraction.
Japan’s Current Account grew less than expected on Friday, printing at ¥1,925.6 billion in November versus October’s print of ¥2,582.8 billion. Markets were hoping for a final reading of ¥2,385.1 billion.
Next week will see Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence for January which last grew by 2.7%, as well as Japan’s Producer Price Index (PPI) figures for December. Australian Securities Inflation follows closely behind, and early Wednesday will see Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Industrial Production, and Retail Sales figures from China.
The Aussie’s dip against the Japanese Yen on Friday sends the AUD/JPY falling back into the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 96.90, and the pair is at risk of further entrenching into a medium-term consolidation pattern that has plagued the AUD/JPY since November.
Daily candlesticks have been pinned to the 50-day SMA for close to six months as the AUD/JPY struggles to develop meaningful momentum, buoyed by a 200-day SMA rotating higher into 94.50.
The pair hasn’t claimed any meaningful territory above 98.00 despite breaking above the key handle several times since September of 2022 as bulls struggle to develop momentum.
Technical Levels: Supports and Resistances
AUDJPY currently trading at 96.87 at the time of writing. Pair opened at 97.24 and is trading with a change of -0.38 % .
| Overview | Overview.1 | |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Today last price | 96.87 |
| 1 | Today Daily Change | -0.37 |
| 2 | Today Daily Change % | -0.38 |
| 3 | Today daily open | 97.24 |
The pair is trading above its 20 Daily moving average @ 96.67, below its 50 Daily moving average @ 96.87 , above its 100 Daily moving average @ 95.91 and above its 200 Daily moving average @ 94.46
| Trends | Trends.1 | |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Daily SMA20 | 96.67 |
| 1 | Daily SMA50 | 96.87 |
| 2 | Daily SMA100 | 95.91 |
| 3 | Daily SMA200 | 94.46 |
The previous day high was 97.8 while the previous day low was 97.08. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 97.36, expected to provide resistance. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 97.53, expected to provide resistance.
Note the levels of interest below:
- Pivot support is noted at 96.95, 96.65, 96.23
- Pivot resistance is noted at 97.67, 98.09, 98.39
| Levels | Levels.1 |
|---|---|
| Previous Daily High | 97.80 |
| Previous Daily Low | 97.08 |
| Previous Weekly High | 97.40 |
| Previous Weekly Low | 95.84 |
| Previous Monthly High | 98.07 |
| Previous Monthly Low | 93.73 |
| Daily Fibonacci 38.2% | 97.36 |
| Daily Fibonacci 61.8% | 97.53 |
| Daily Pivot Point S1 | 96.95 |
| Daily Pivot Point S2 | 96.65 |
| Daily Pivot Point S3 | 96.23 |
| Daily Pivot Point R1 | 97.67 |
| Daily Pivot Point R2 | 98.09 |
| Daily Pivot Point R3 | 98.39 |
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