Australian Dollar rises as the US Dollar declines due to the lower 10-year US bond yield.

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• Australian Dollar rises as the US Dollar declines due to the lower 10-year US bond yield.
• Australian Central Bank is expected to reduce the policy rate after the softer Consumer Confidence and Employment Change figures.
• AUD could find support as the domestic share market surges following a rally in the US markets on Friday.
• PBoC keeps its Loan Prime Rate (LPR) steady at 3.45% and 4.20% for the one-year and the five years, respectively.
• US and UK could intensify their campaign against Iran-backed Houthi terrorists in Yemen.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) hovers around a psychological level at 0.6600 on Monday amid market uncertainty driven by discussions between the United States (US) and the United Kingdom (UK) on intensifying actions against Iran-backed Houthi terrorists in Yemen. Nevertheless, the AUD/USD pair finds some uplift from a subdued US Dollar (USD), influenced by a reduction in long-term US Treasury yields.

Australia’s dollar faces a setback amidst speculation about potential early interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). This speculation is fueled by the latest subdued Aussie Consumer Confidence and Employment Change figures. However, the AUD could cheer the surge in the domestic share market, mirroring a rally in the US that propelled the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq to new records on Friday. This surge was driven by expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is poised to lower interest rates later in the year. Furthermore, optimism was fueled by the projection from the world’s largest contract chipmaker, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, indicating a forecast of more than 20% revenue growth in 2024, which had a positive impact on global stocks.

The People’s Bank of China has decided to keep its Loan Prime Rate (LPR) steady for both the one-year and five-year terms. The rate remains at 3.45% for the one-year period and 4.20% for the five-year period.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) consolidates after recent losses in the previous session. The US Dollar could find some support due to concerns about maritime trade in the Red Sea. The US and the UK are looking to intensify their campaign without inciting a broader conflict with Iran. More ships are diverting away from the Suez Canal and the Red Sea. Shipping vessels are assessing the risks associated with navigating the Red Sea, as insurance costs rise. Opting for the alternative route around the southern tip of Africa may increase delivery times, shipping costs, and inflation. This situation could enhance risk aversion sentiments, leading traders to seek the safe-haven US Dollar, consequently exerting downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly expressed her belief on Friday that the central bank still has significant work to accomplish in bringing inflation back down to the 2.0% target. She emphasized that it is premature to consider interest-rate cuts as an imminent measure. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic reiterated his position on expectations for rate cuts ahead of the Fed entering the “blackout” period before the next rate meeting scheduled for January 31. Bostic emphasized his openness to adjusting his outlook on the timing of rate cuts and highlighted that the Fed remains data-dependent.

The Australian Dollar trades near 0.6610 on Monday. In the AUD/USD pair, potential resistance lies around the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6624, followed by a significant level at 0.6650. If the pair surpasses this major level, it may aim for a test of the psychological level at 0.6700. On the downside, immediate support is evident at the psychological level of 0.6600, followed by the 50% retracement level at 0.6568, and then the major support at 0.6550. A breach below the latter could prompt the AUD/USD pair to explore levels around the psychological mark of 0.6500, in conjunction with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.6497.

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