Mexican Peso appreciates against the Dollar, driven by the recent Fed decision and softer US employment figures.

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• Mexican Peso appreciates against the Dollar, driven by the recent Fed decision and softer US employment figures.
• Banxico’s survey indicates expectations of a rate cut to 9.25% and a year-end exchange rate forecast of 18.50, influencing market sentiment.
• Mexico’s manufacturing sector shows expansion with a slowdown, contrasting with US data that points to a cooling labor market but increasing manufacturing activity.

The Mexican Peso (MXN) climbed against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday as market participants digested the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) decision. Alongside that, softer employment figures in the United States (US) and a risk-on impulse favor the emerging market currency. The USD/MXN trades at 17.09, down by 0.64%.

The Bank of Mexico (Banxico) revealed its survey of expectations on Thursday, showing that analysts estimate the bank will lower rates to 9.25% and expect the exchange rate to end at 18.50. In regard to inflation expectations, private analysts estimate it to hit 4.17% and economic growth to range from 2.29% to 2.40%.

Meanwhile, Mexico’s economic docket featuring that business activity in the manufacturing sector expanded, but it’s slowing down. In the meantime, US economic data showed the labor market is cooling while manufacturing activity gathers steam.

The USD/MXN remains trading sideways, but it has pierced below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 17.13, exposing the exotic pair to further losses. If sellers reclaim the January 22 daily low of 17.05, that could open the door to challenging the 17.00 figure.

On the flip side, if buyers reclaim the 50-day SMA at 17.13, that could exacerbate a rally to 17.20. Once that level is cleared, the next resistance would be the 200-day SMA at 17.33, followed by the 100-day SMA at 17.38.

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