#USDINR @ 82.7875 Indian Rupee holds positive ground on the softer USD.

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#USDINR @ 82.7875 Indian Rupee holds positive ground on the softer USD.

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  • Indian Rupee holds positive ground on the softer USD.
  • India’s retail inflation came in at 5.69% in December vs. 5.55% prior, weaker than the 5.87% expected.
  • Investors will closely monitor the Indian Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation report, due on Monday.

Indian Rupee (INR) kicks off the new week on a positive note on Monday amid the US Dollar (USD) weakness. The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation revealed on Friday that India’s retail inflation hit a four-month high of 5.69% in December from 5.55% in November, weaker than the market expectation of 5.87%. While headline retail inflation rose again in December and now spent 51 consecutive months above the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) medium-term target of 4%, it continues to remain close to the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) tolerance range of 2–6%.

The India Wholesale Price Index (WPI) Inflation report will be in the spotlight on Monday. Furthermore, the Indian WPI Fuel, WPI Food, and Trade Balance data will be released later in the day. Risk sentiment is likely to remain the key driver behind the USD/INR’s price action in the absence of US top-tier economic data due to the Martin Luther King Jr.’s Birthday bank holiday

Indian Rupee trades strongly on the day. The USD/INR pair has remained stuck within the 82.80-83.40 trading range since September 2023. Technically, USD/INR exhibits a bearish vibe as the pair holds below the key 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. The negative outlook is supported by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) which is below the 50.0 midpoint, suggesting the path of least resistance is to the downside.

A breach of the key support level of 82.80, the lower limit of the trading range and a low of September 12, will see a drop to a low of August 11 at 82.60. The next contention level is seen near a low of August 24 at 82.40. On the upside, the support-turned-resistance at 83.00 acts as an immediate upside barrier for USD/INR. Further north, the upper boundary of the trading range at 83.40 will be the additional upside filter to watch, followed by the psychological figure at 84.00.

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