The USDINR currency pair is maintaining small increases just below the middle level of the 83.00s in anticipation of upcoming data from the United States.

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• USD/INR sticks to modest gains below the mid-83.00s ahead of US data.

The pair currently trades last at 83.2050.

The previous day high was 83.4189 while the previous day low was 83.1547. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 83.2556, expected to provide resistance. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 83.3179, expected to provide resistance.

USD/INR posts modest gains during the Asian session on Thursday. The uptick in the pair is supported by the rally of US Dollar (USD) broadly and higher Treasury yield. The pair currently trades around 83.22, losing 0.07% on the day.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), a measure of the value of the USD relative to a basket of foreign currencies, climbs to 106.65, the highest since November. The higher for longer rates narrative and risk-averse sentiment are the main drivers of the pair. However, growth risks from the possibility of an imminent government shutdown in the US might cap the upside of the Greenback against its rivals.

On Wednesday, the US Census Bureau reported that the US Durable Goods Orders rebounded in August, rising 0.2% m/m from a 5.6% drop in the previous reading, against expectations of a 0.5% m/m fall. Additionally, Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation rose by 0.4% m/m, a better than expected of 0.1% rise. Core capital goods orders rose 0.9% from the previous reading of a 0.4% drop, above the market consensus of 0%.

On the other hand, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to maintain a status quo on interest rates for the fourth consecutive time at its upcoming monetary policy meeting scheduled for October 4-6. The benchmark repo rate was lifted to 6.5% in February and remained unchanged since then due to elevated retail inflation and global factors, including high crude oil prices.

Looking ahead, market players will monitor the US weekly Jobless Claims report, the third revision of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter, and Pending Home Sales data due later on Thursday. On Friday, the Indian Federal Fiscal Deficit for August, Current Account, and Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Monetary Credit and Information Review will be released. The closely watched event will be the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index on Friday. These figures could give a clear direction of the USD/INR pair.

Technical Levels: Supports and Resistances

USDINR currently trading at 83.2047 at the time of writing. Pair opened at 83.2865 and is trading with a change of -0.1 % .

The pair remains strongly bullish on the daily timeframe. It trades above its 20 SMA @ 83.0727, 50 SMA 82.8331, 100 SMA @ 82.5734 and 200 SMA @ 82.3697.

The previous day high was 83.4189 while the previous day low was 83.1547. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 83.2556, expected to provide resistance. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 83.3179, expected to provide resistance.

Note the levels of interest below:

• Pivot support is noted at 83.1545, 83.0225, 82.8904
• Pivot resistance is noted at 83.4187, 83.5508, 83.6828

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