The USDCHF currency pair, trading at a rate of 0.90418, experiences a slight decrease to 0.9038 following the unexpected decision by the Swiss National Bank to maintain interest rates at 1.75%, whereas the market had anticipated an increase to 2%.
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- USD/CHF gains to 0.9038 after the SNB surprises markets by keeping rates at 1.75%, with the market pricing in a hike to 2%.
The pair currently trades last at 0.90418.
The previous day high was 0.8996 while the previous day low was 0.8932. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 0.8971, expected to provide support. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 0.8956, expected to provide support.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) lost ground against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday after the Swiss National Bank (SNB) surprisingly decided to hold rates unchanged, surprising the markets, which priced in a rate hike to 2%. Hence, the USD/CHF edges higher by 0.59%, exchanging hands at 0.9038.
In the early European session, the SNB unexpectedly held rates at 1.75% as money market futures estimated a 25 bps rate hike. Although it was a dovish surprise, the Swiss National Bank commented that further tightening may be necessary to ensure price stability over the medium term.
The central bank updated its inflation forecasts for 2023 and 2024, seeing the Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 2.2%. Even though it’s just within the price stability range, the SNB foresees inflation to rise to 1.9% in 2025.
Aside from this, the aftermath of the US Federal Reserve’s hawkish hold also weighed on the Swiss Franc (CHF). Market players were surprised by the Fed’s upward revision to the Federal Funds Rates (FFR) above 5% in 2024, compared to June’s 4.6% projection. That’s the primary driver of price action in the financial markets, which sent US equities tumbling, US bond yields rising, and the Greenback holding its ground against most G8 currencies.
US Treasury bond yields had extended their gains, with the US 2-year bond yield, the most sensitive to short-term interest rate adjustments, at 5.146%, after reaching a multi-year high of 5.202%.
That said, the USD/CHF would rely on an interest rate differential between the US and Switzerland, thus favoring the Greenback. Therefore, the USD/CHF could continue to trend up, and a clear break above the 200-DMA could sponsor a test of the year-to-date (YTD) high above the 0.9400 mark.
USD/CHF resumed its uptrend, conquering the 0.9000 threshold after the SNB decision. On its way north, the pair reached a daily high of 0.9078 but retraced toward the 200-day moving average (DMA) at 0.9033. Daily close above the latter, a move towards the May 31 swing high of 0.9147 is on the cards. Otherwise, expect a consolidation within the 0.9000/0.9040 area unless it bears drag prices below the 0.9000 mark.
Technical Levels: Supports and Resistances
USDCHF currently trading at 0.9039 at the time of writing. Pair opened at 0.8986 and is trading with a change of 0.59 % .
| Overview | Overview.1 | |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Today last price | 0.9039 |
| 1 | Today Daily Change | 0.0053 |
| 2 | Today Daily Change % | 0.5900 |
| 3 | Today daily open | 0.8986 |
The pair remains strongly bullish on the daily timeframe. It trades above its 20 SMA @ 0.8896, 50 SMA 0.8788, 100 SMA @ 0.8882 and 200 SMA @ 0.9037.
| Trends | Trends.1 | |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Daily SMA20 | 0.8896 |
| 1 | Daily SMA50 | 0.8788 |
| 2 | Daily SMA100 | 0.8882 |
| 3 | Daily SMA200 | 0.9037 |
The previous day high was 0.8996 while the previous day low was 0.8932. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 0.8971, expected to provide support. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 0.8956, expected to provide support.
Note the levels of interest below:
- Pivot support is noted at 0.8947, 0.8908, 0.8884
- Pivot resistance is noted at 0.9011, 0.9035, 0.9074
| Levels | Levels.1 |
|---|---|
| Previous Daily High | 0.8996 |
| Previous Daily Low | 0.8932 |
| Previous Weekly High | 0.8978 |
| Previous Weekly Low | 0.8897 |
| Previous Monthly High | 0.8876 |
| Previous Monthly Low | 0.8690 |
| Daily Fibonacci 38.2% | 0.8971 |
| Daily Fibonacci 61.8% | 0.8956 |
| Daily Pivot Point S1 | 0.8947 |
| Daily Pivot Point S2 | 0.8908 |
| Daily Pivot Point S3 | 0.8884 |
| Daily Pivot Point R1 | 0.9011 |
| Daily Pivot Point R2 | 0.9035 |
| Daily Pivot Point R3 | 0.9074 |
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