What is the date of Australia Retail Sales? How might this data impact the AUD/USD currency pair?
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Early Thursday, around 01:30 AM GMT, the market sees preliminary readings of Australia’s seasonally adjusted Retail Sales for May month. Market consensus suggests an improvement in the seasonally adjusted monthly print to 0.1% MoM from 0.0% prior.
The Aussie Retail Sales figures appear more important for the AUD/USD pair this time after the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) latest hawkish surprises, as well as fresh talks of policy pivot in Australia backed by the previous day’s disappointment from the Aussie inflation data.
Ahead of the release, Analysts at ANZ said,
AUD/USD stays pressured at the lowest level in three weeks, around 0.6600 by the press time, as it braces for the Aussie data during early Thursday, after witnessing a disappointment from Australia’s Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May. In doing so, the Aussie pair also bears the burden of the hawkish Fed signals and the market’s cautious mood ahead of the key data/events.
That said, the recent chatters surrounding the Aussie recession, as well as receding monetary policy divergence between the RBA and the Fed, may seek validation from today’s Aussie Retail Sales data. Hence, recovery in the key statistics may allow the AUD/USD to lick its wounds at the multi-day low.
It should be noted, however, that the Aussie data may have a knee-jerk reaction for the AUD/USD pair as traders are more interested in the Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech in Madrid and the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for the said month, known as the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
Technically, the oversold RSI (14) prods the AUD/USD bears. However, the pair’s sustained trading below the 200-DMA, around 0.6690 by the press time, directs the bears toward the 0.6580 support.
AUD/USD sellers keep the reins at three-week low near 0.6600 ahead of Australia Retail Sales
AUD/USD Forecast: Downtrend persists, focus on 0.6600 support
The Retail Sales released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a survey of goods sold by retailers based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes and it’s considered an indicator of the pace of the Australian economy. It shows the performance of the retail sector over the short and mid-term. Positive economic growth anticipates bullish trends for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.
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