ING predicts that the Swiss National Bank’s hawkish stance will continue, causing the USDCHF to remain in a bearish state with the aim of reaching a low of 0.8820 seen in May. The current rate is 0.89290.
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The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets to set rates today. Economists at ING analyze CHF’s outlook ahead of the decision.
The majority of economists are going for a 25 bps hike, but a sizable minority look for 50 bps.
Recent SNB rhetoric has remained hawkish despite core inflation dropping below 2% year-on-year. Last September, we estimated that the SNB wanted to engineer 5% nominal appreciation per year to keep the real CHF stable. That is roughly what has happened. Where we were wrong is that it has come more through USD/CHF than EUR/CHF.
Expect a hawkish SNB today to keep USD/CHF offered – targeting May’s 0.8820 low.
See – SNB Preview: Two scenarios and their implications for EUR/CHF – Credit Suisse
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