Throughout the Asian trading session on Monday, the exchange rate between the US dollar and the Indian rupee (USDINR), which stands at 81.9625, displayed limited fluctuations within a narrow trading range.

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• USD/INR oscillates in a narrow trading band through the Asian session on Monday.

The pair currently trades last at 81.9625.

The previous day high was 82.0217 while the previous day low was 81.8477. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 81.9552, expected to provide support. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 81.9142, expected to provide support.

The USD/INR pair struggles to capitalize on Friday’s modest bounce from the 81.85 region, or its lowest level since May 9 and kicks off the new week on a subdued note. Spot prices oscillate in a narrow trading band through the Asian session and currently trade just below the 82.00 mark, nearly unchanged for the day.

From a technical perspective, last week’s sustained break and acceptance below the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) was seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart are holding deep in the negative territory and are still far from being in the oversold zone. This, in turn, reaffirms the negative outlook and suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD/INR pair is to the downside.

Hence, a subsequent slide towards testing the next relevant support, near the 81.70-81.65 region, looks like a distinct possibility. Some follow-through selling will make a fresh breakdown and pave the way for an extension of the recent retracement slide from the vicinity of the 83.00 round-figure mark witnessed over the past four weeks or so.

On the flip side, the 200-day SMA, currently pegged around the 82.10 area, now seems to act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the 82.30 horizontal zone. A sustained strength beyond, however, might negate the negative outlook and trigger some near-term short-covering move. The USD/INR pair might then climb back towards the 82.70-82.75 hurdle before making a fresh attempt to conquer the 83.00 mark.

Technical Levels: Supports and Resistances

USDINR currently trading at 81.982 at the time of writing. Pair opened at 81.943 and is trading with a change of 0.05 % .

The pair remains strongly bearish on the daily time frame. It trades below the 20 SMA @ 82.473, 50 SMA 82.2057, 100 SMA @ 82.2838 and 200 SMA @ 82.0505.

The previous day high was 82.0217 while the previous day low was 81.8477. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 81.9552, expected to provide support. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 81.9142, expected to provide support.

Note the levels of interest below:

• Pivot support is noted at 81.8533, 81.7635, 81.6793
• Pivot resistance is noted at 82.0273, 82.1115, 82.2013

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