#XAUUSD @ 3.6019 Gold price fades upside momentum at three-month high amid US Dollar rebound., @nehcap view: Bullish (Pivot Orderbook analysis)

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• Gold price fades upside momentum at three-month high amid US Dollar rebound.
• United States consumer-centric data propels Fed pivot discussion and keeps XAUUSD bulls hopeful.
• Cautious mood ahead of Biden-Xi meeting teases intraday sellers of gold.

The pair currently trades last at 3.6019.

The previous day high was 1768.17 while the previous day low was 1747.36. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 1760.22, expected to provide resistance. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 1755.31, expected to provide resistance.

Gold price (XAUUSD) remains pressured around the intraday low near $1,760, snapping two-day uptrend at the highest levels in three months heading into Monday’s European session.

The yellow metal’s latest weakness, or a pullback, could be linked to the comments from US Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller, as well as anxiety ahead of the Group of 20 Nations (G20) meeting in Bali. Additionally, the return of the bond traders after Friday’s off also provided an opportunity for the XAUUSD bulls to take a breather.

US 10-year Treasury yields rose six basis points (bps) to 3.89%, printing the first daily gains in four. On the same line was the coupon for two-year US Treasury bonds, up 1.65% intraday near 4.42% at the latest. Given the firmer ties between the US Dollar and the Treasury bond yields, a rebound in the US bond coupons underpin the USD bounce, which in turn weighs on the XAUUSD price.

Although China’s easing of the coronavirus-led activity restrictions and measures taken to ease the pain of the real estate market by a 16-point plan appeared to have defended the market optimists of late.

However, comments from Fed’s Waller and the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) gloomy outlook weigh on the sentiment, as well as the gold price. Additionally, teasing the XAUUSD bears are the latest statements from US President Joe Biden and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.

Fed’s Waller said, “Rates will not fall until there is ‘clear, strong evidence’ inflation is falling,” which in turn curtailed the dovish bets on the Fed’s next moves. The policymaker, however, also mentioned that the Fed can begin to consider moving at a slower pace.

Given the recently firmer bets on the Fed’s 0.50% rate hike in December, mainly backed by the last week’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Confidence Index, the US dollar is likely to remain pressured unless policymakers raise doubts on further easing in the rates.

While signals relating to the Fed’s next moves and economic fears seemed to have triggered the XAUUSD pullback, the metal’s immediate performance hinges on the meeting between US President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping on the sidelined of the G20.

Ahead of the meeting, Reuters quotes US President Biden as saying that the US communication lines with China would stay open to prevent conflict, with tough talks almost certain in the days ahead. The news also mentioned, “The United States would ‘compete vigorously’ with Beijing while “ensuring competition does not veer into conflict”, said Biden, stressing the importance of peace in the Taiwan Strait during an address to the East Asia Summit in Cambodia. He arrived in Bali on Sunday night.” On the same line, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen also mentioned, per Reuters, “Biden-Xi meeting aimed at stabilizing u.s. relationship with china, but have been clear about national security concerns.”

Should the Sino-American tussles fail to ease, the gold price could have a further downside to track.

Gold price remains mildly offered as sellers jostle with the 200-day EMA, around $1,760 by the press time, to retake control.

Although the XAUUSD sellers cheer the overbought RSI (14) to take a risk at the three-month high, a daily closing below the aforementioned key Exponential Moving Average (EMA) appears necessary for the bears.

Even so, a convergence of the 100-day EMA and the previous resistance line from early September, now support around $1,719-18, becomes crucial support to watch during the further downside of the gold price.

It’s worth noting that a five-month-old resistance-turned-support line, near $1,688, appears the last defense of the XAUUSD bulls.

Alternatively, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of gold’s downside from June to September, around $1,778, restricts the metal’s immediate upside.

Trend: Bullish

Technical Levels: Supports and Resistances

XAUUSD currently trading at 1760 at the time of writing. Pair opened at 1767.83 and is trading with a change of -0.44% % .

The pair is trading above its 20 Daily moving average @ 1666.74, above its 50 Daily moving average @ 1675.78 , above its 100 Daily moving average @ 1715.03 and below its 200 Daily moving average @ 1803.49

The previous day high was 1768.17 while the previous day low was 1747.36. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 1760.22, expected to provide resistance. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 1755.31, expected to provide resistance.

Note the levels of interest below:

• Pivot support is noted at 1754.07, 1740.31, 1733.26
• Pivot resistance is noted at 1774.88, 1781.93, 1795.69

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