USDCHF consolidates the biggest daily loss in five months, prints mild gains of late. (Pivot Orderbook analysis)

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• USDCHF consolidates the biggest daily loss in five months, prints mild gains of late.
• Risk-aversion helps US dollar to pare recent losses but indecision over Fed’s next move tests greenback bulls.
• SNB’s Jordan will be eyed for hawkish speech after upbeat Swiss inflation.
• US CPI for October will be crucial amid mixed jobs report, Fedspeak.

The pair currently trades last at 0.9969.

The previous day high was 1.0145 while the previous day low was 0.9932. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 1.0013, expected to provide resistance. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 1.0063, expected to provide resistance.

USDCHF picks up bids to 0.9970 during Monday’s Asian session, paring the biggest daily loss since June amid the risk-off mood. Even so, the Swiss currency (CHF) pair buyers appear cautious ahead of this week’s key data/events.

Fears of China’s covid controls, as well as geopolitical fears surrounding Russia, triggered the risk-aversion wave at the week’s start. Also likely to have tested the traders are mixed concerns over the Fed’s next move.

Officials from China National Health Commission turned down the previous hopes of witnessing easy covid control as they said, per Reuters, that China will persevere with its “dynamic-clearing” approach to COVID-19 cases as soon as they emerge. The news also added that measures must be implemented more precisely and meet the needs of vulnerable people.

China President Xi Jinping’s warning to Russian President Vladimir Putin over the usage of nuclear technology in the war against Ukraine also weighed on the sentiment and propelled the USDCHF prices. Furthermore, the news from the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) suggesting that a senior White House Official is involved in undisclosed talks with top Putin aides also tried to please the pair buyers.

The expectations of witnessing easy covid controls in China joined mixed US job numbers and Fedspeak to drown the USDCHF prices the previous day. ”An unverified social media post last week, and a report authorities were working on plans to scrap a system that penalizes airlines for bringing virus cases into the country, boosted investor hopes that China’s pandemic policy may soon be loosened,” Bloomberg reported.

On Friday, the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) for October arrived at 261K versus 200K expected and 315K upwardly revised prior. However, the Unemployment Rate surprised markets by rising to 3.7% compared to 3.5% previous readings and 3.6% market forecasts. Following the data, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said that the US labor market was still tight while also mentioning, “Not sure I know what we’ll do in December.” Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins said on Friday that it is time for the Fed to shift its focus from the size of rate hikes to the “ultimate “destination,” as reported by Reuters.

Amid these plays, Wall Street benchmarks closed positive and so did the US Treasury yields. However, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was down and propelled prices of commodities and Antipodeans. It’s worth noting that S&P 500 Futures drop 0.75% intraday at the latest.

Moving on, the economic calendar is a bit light during this week but comments from Swiss National Bank (SNB) Governor Thomas Jordan and the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October will be crucial to watch going forward. The reason could be linked to the recently firmer Swiss inflation data and the mixed US job numbers.

USDCHF grinds higher between a two-month-old ascending support line and the 21-DMA, respectively near 0.9930 and 0.9990.

Technical Levels: Supports and Resistances

EURUSD currently trading at 0.9969 at the time of writing. Pair opened at 0.9939 and is trading with a change of 0.30% % .

The pair is trading below its 20 Daily moving average @ 0.9989, above its 50 Daily moving average @ 0.9851 , above its 100 Daily moving average @ 0.9735 and above its 200 Daily moving average @ 0.9611

The previous day high was 1.0145 while the previous day low was 0.9932. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 1.0013, expected to provide resistance. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 1.0063, expected to provide resistance.

Note the levels of interest below:

• Pivot support is noted at 0.9866, 0.9792, 0.9653
• Pivot resistance is noted at 1.0079, 1.0218, 1.0291

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