AUDJPY grinds lower towards 93.00, yields, RBA Monetary Policy Statement eyed (Pivot Orderbook analysis)

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• AUDJPY grinds lower towards 93.00, yields, RBA Monetary Policy Statement eyed
• AUDJPY seesaws around three-week low, eyes the first daily gain in four.
• Risk aversion and mixed Aussie data weigh on prices.
• Fears of Japan’s intervention, dovish RBA statement keep sellers hopeful.
• Australia’s Q3 Retail Sales, the bond market’s performance eyed as well.

The pair currently trades last at 93.22.

The previous day high was 94.85 while the previous day low was 93.88. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 94.25, expected to provide resistance. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 94.48, expected to provide resistance.

AUDJPY portrays the typical pre-event anxiety during early Friday morning in Asia. That said, bears take a breather the lowest levels since October 17, also probing the three-day downtrend, ahead of the key Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Statement (MPS). Also important is the third quarter (Q3) detail of Australia’s Retail Sales, not to forget Japan’s return from holiday.

AUDJPY justified its risk-barometer status in the last few days amid the global central bankers’ rush towards higher rates, which in turn amplifies the recession fears. Recently, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BOE) were among the same while comments from the European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers also raised such concerns.

Additionally, mixed data from Australia and China also exerted downside pressure on the AUDJPY prices of late. That said, China’s Caixin Services PMI for October dropped to the lowest level in five months while flashing 48.4 figure versus 49.3 prior. Further, Australia’s trade surplus increased to 12,444M in September versus 8,850M expected and 8,324M prior while the Exports rallied by 7.0%, compared to 2.6% prior. However, the growth of the Imports dropped to 0.4% versus 4.5% prior.

Earlier in the day, Australia’s AiG Performance of Construction Index for October eased to 43.3 versus 46.5 prior.

Elsewhere, the off in Japan, fears of Tokyo intervention and covid woes from China, not to forget the latest geopolitical tension emanating from North Korea, also weigh on the AUDJPY prices.

Against this backdrop, the Wall Street benchmarks closed in the red while the US 10-year Treasury yields refreshed a one-week high to 4.22% before retreating to 4.15%. Notably, the US 2-year bond coupons rose to the highest levels since 2007.

Looking forward, AUDJPY prices may witness further downside amid the market’s risk-off mood, as well as the likely dovish tone of the RBA’s MPS. However, Japan’s return from the holiday and any improvement in Aussie Q3 Retail Sales, expected at 0.4% QoQ versus 1.4% prior, might trigger the cross-currency pair’s corrective bounce.

A daily closing below the 21-DMA, around 93.65 by the press time, directs AUDJPY towards the 200-DMA support level of 91.75.

Technical Levels: Supports and Resistances

AUDUSD currently trading at 93.22 at the time of writing. Pair opened at 93.88 and is trading with a change of -0.70% % .

The pair is trading below its 20 Daily moving average @ 93.65, below its 50 Daily moving average @ 94.66 , below its 100 Daily moving average @ 94.23 and above its 200 Daily moving average @ 91.62

The previous day high was 94.85 while the previous day low was 93.88. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 94.25, expected to provide resistance. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 94.48, expected to provide resistance.

Note the levels of interest below:

• Pivot support is noted at 93.55, 93.23, 92.58
• Pivot resistance is noted at 94.53, 95.17, 95.5

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