#GBPJPY @ 168.215 edges lower on Friday, though the intraday downtick lacks bearish conviction. (Pivot Orderbook analysis)

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• GBP/JPY edges lower on Friday, though the intraday downtick lacks bearish conviction.
• The recent UK political turmoil and dismal UK macro data continue to weigh on sterling.
• Rising bets for a full 100 bps BoE rate hike in November help limit any further downfall.

The pair currently trades last at 168.215.

The previous day high was 169.74 while the previous day low was 167.42. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 168.85, expected to provide resistance. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 168.31, expected to provide resistance.

The GBP/JPY cross remains on the defensive through the early European session and refreshes daily low, around the 168.15-168.10 region in reaction to the dismal UK macro data.

In fact, the UK Office for National Statistics reported this Friday that Retail Sales declined by 1.4% in September, missing estimates pointing to a 0.5% fall. On an annualized basis, the UK Retail Sales plunged -6.9% during the reported month against the 5.0% slide expected. Moreover, the core Retail Sales tumbled 6.2% YoY in September versus -4.1% anticipated and -5.3% previous.

The data adds to concerns about the cost-of-living crisis in the United Kingdom amid growing worries about a deeper economic downturn. This comes on the back of the recent UK political turmoil, which undermines the British pound and exerts some downward pressure on the GBP/JPY cross. That said, bets for a full 100 bps rate hike by the Bank of England in November help limit the downside.

The Japanese yen, on the other hand, is prolonging its recent depreciating move amid a big divergence in the monetary policy stance adopted by the Bank of Japan and other major central banks. In fact, the BoJ, so far, has shown no inclination to hike interest rates and remains committed to continuing with its ultra-lose policy settings. This further seems to offer some support to the GBP/JPY cross.

It, however, remains to be seen if spot prices manage to regain any positive traction amid speculations that authorities might intervene again to stem any further weakness in the domestic currency. This, along with the cautious market mood, amid looming recession risks, could offer support to the safe-haven JPY and contribute to keeping a lid on any meaningful upside for the GBP/JPY cross.

Technical Levels: Supports and Resistances

GBPJPY currently trading at 168.17 at the time of writing. Pair opened at 168.64 and is trading with a change of -0.28 % .

The pair remains strongly bullish on the daily timeframe. It trades above its 20 SMA @ 162.64, 50 SMA 162.82, 100 SMA @ 163.55 and 200 SMA @ 161.07.

The previous day high was 169.74 while the previous day low was 167.42. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 168.85, expected to provide resistance. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 168.31, expected to provide resistance.

Note the levels of interest below:

• Pivot support is noted at 167.47, 166.29, 165.16
• Pivot resistance is noted at 169.78, 170.91, 172.09

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