#AUDUSD @ 0.64036 is expecting more downside despite better-than-expected Aussie Retail Sales data. (Pivot Orderbook analysis)

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• AUD/USD is expecting more downside despite better-than-expected Aussie Retail Sales data.
• Aussie monthly Retail Sales figures have landed at 0.6% higher than the expectations of 0.4%.
• Fed Powell will sound hawkish as price pressures are extremely far from the desired rate of 2%.

The pair currently trades last at 0.64036.

The previous day high was 0.6513 while the previous day low was 0.6414. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 0.6452, expected to provide resistance. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 0.6475, expected to provide resistance.

The AUD/USD pair is expected to slip down to near 0.6400 despite the release of the lower-than-expected monthly Retail Sales data. The economic data has landed at 0.6%, higher than the estimates of 0.4%, but lower than the prior release of 1.3%.

In times, when inflationary pressures are skyrocketing in the Australian economy and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is continuously tightening its policy, higher Retail Sales data will delight the central bank. Investors should be aware of the fact that the RBA has already raised its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 2.35%. This month the RBA elevated its OCR by 50 basis points for the fourth time.

Meanwhile, the US dollar index (DXY) is having a ball after the release of upbeat Consumer Confidence data. The US Conference Board reported the sentiment data at 108.0 higher than the prior release of 103.6. The soaring confidence of consumers in the US economy is going to delight the Federal Reserve (Fed) as it is a sign of robust demand by the individuals. This will support the Fed to announce more rate hikes unhesitatingly.

Going forward, the speech from Fed chair Jerome Powell will remain in limelight. Fed policymaker is expected to dictate the likely monetary policy action by the Fed for its scheduled monetary policy which will take place in the first week of November and mid of December. As price pressures have not responded in conjunction with the current pace of hiking interest rates by the Fed, the ‘hawkish’ stance will be adopted by Fed’s Powell.

Technical Levels: Supports and Resistances

AUDUSD currently trading at 0.6411 at the time of writing. Pair opened at 0.6435 and is trading with a change of -0.37 % .

The pair remains strongly bearish on the daily time frame. It trades below the 20 SMA @ 0.6712, 50 SMA 0.686, 100 SMA @ 0.6917 and 200 SMA @ 0.7087.

The previous day high was 0.6513 while the previous day low was 0.6414. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 0.6452, expected to provide resistance. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 0.6475, expected to provide resistance.

Note the levels of interest below:

• Pivot support is noted at 0.6395, 0.6355, 0.6295
• Pivot resistance is noted at 0.6494, 0.6553, 0.6593

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