#USDIDR @ 14,885.0 pokes intraday low after upbeat Indonesia trade numbers for August. (Pivot Orderbook analysis)

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• USD/IDR pokes intraday low after upbeat Indonesia trade numbers for August.
• Fears surrounding China, hawkish Fed bets challenge sellers amid dicey markets.
• US Retail Sales, risk catalysts eyed for fresh impulse.

The pair currently trades last at 14885.0.

The previous day high was 14987.5 while the previous day low was 14861.0. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 14909.323, expected to provide resistance. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 14939.177, expected to provide resistance.

USD/IDR drops for the second consecutive day, taking offers to renew intraday low near $14,883, on upbeat Indonesia trade data published during Thursday’s Asian session. In doing so, the Indonesia rupiah (IDR) pair ignores the US dollar’s recovery moves ahead of the key US Retail Sales.

Indonesia marked robust trade numbers for August as the headlines Trade Balance rose to $5.76B versus $4.09B market forecasts and $4.22B prior. Also, the Exports grew 30.15% and the Imports rose 32.81% compared to the expectations of 19.19% and 30.6% in that order.

It should be noted that the headlines from Bloomberg suggesting China’s readiness for the worst economic slowdown, dire than the one seen in 2020, failed to push back the USD/IDR bears. The reason could be linked to Beijing’s readiness for more stimulus, around 200 billion yuan as per the latest chatters.

Elsewhere, the US Dollar Index (DXY) reverses the previous day’s downbeat performance around 109.70 even as the US Producer Price Index (PPI) flashed softer readings in August. US PPI declined to 8.7% YoY in August from 9.8% in July, versus 8.8% market forecasts. Details suggest that the PPI ex Food & Energy, better known as Core PPI, also eased to 7.3% YoY from 7.6% but surpassed the market expectation of 7.1%. Even so, the 75% chance of the Fed’s 75 basis points (bps) rate hike in the next week, as well as the 25% odds favoring the full 100 bps Fed rate lift, as per the CME’s FedWatch Tool, favor the DXY bulls.

On a broader front, US President Joe Biden’s rejection of US fears and China’s stimulus are some of the key developments that should have favored the risk appetite. However, the Sino-American tussles and the energy crisis in Europe seemed to have challenged the optimism. It’s worth noting that the looming labor strike in the US appears an extra burden on the risk appetite.

Against this backdrop, the S&P 500 Futures print mild gains around 3,670 whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields remain directionless near 3.416%. Additionally, Indonesia’s equity benchmark IDX Composite Index rises 1.17% intraday by the press time.

Having witnessed the initial impact of Indonesia data, the USD/IDR may witness hardships in extending the latest downside ahead of the US Retail Sales for August, expected to remain unchanged at 0.0%.

The rising wedge bearish chart pattern keeps USD/IDR bears hopeful unless the quote stays below the $14,975 hurdle. However, a clear downside break of the $14,830 becomes necessary for the bear’s conviction.

Technical Levels: Supports and Resistances

USDIDR currently trading at 14883 at the time of writing. Pair opened at 14912.6 and is trading with a change of -0.20% % .

The pair is trading above its 20 Daily moving average @ 14875.63, below its 50 Daily moving average @ 14892.15 , above its 100 Daily moving average @ 14779.331 and above its 200 Daily moving average @ 14561.3048

The previous day high was 14987.5 while the previous day low was 14861.0. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 14909.323, expected to provide resistance. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 14939.177, expected to provide resistance.

Note the levels of interest below:

• Pivot support is noted at 14853.2333, 14793.8667, 14726.7333
• Pivot resistance is noted at 14979.7333, 15046.8667, 15106.2333

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