#GBPUSD @ 1.14957 has sensed buying interest as the UK inflation rate has declined by 30 bps to 9.9% vs. expectations. (Pivot Orderbook analysis)

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• GBP/USD has sensed buying interest as the UK inflation rate has declined by 30 bps to 9.9% vs. expectations.
• The deadly duo of a double-digit inflation rate and a vulnerable labor market will haunt the BOE.
• The higher US inflation rate has refreshed the odds of a bumper rate hike by the Fed.

The pair currently trades last at 1.14957.

The previous day high was 1.1738 while the previous day low was 1.1492. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 1.1586, expected to provide resistance. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 1.1644, expected to provide resistance.

The GBP/USD pair is picking bids around 1.1500 after the release of UK inflation data. The headline inflation rate has been trimmed to 9.9% vs. the forecasts of 10.2% and the prior release of 10.1%. While the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) has remained in line with the estimates at 6.3%.

The price rise index has slipped lower but is still beyond the desired rate of UK central bank. The deadly duo of the higher inflation rate and Tuesday’s weaker Claimant Count Change data will continue to trigger more troubles for the Bank of England (BOE). The UK Office for National Statistics reported an increment in the number of jobless benefits claims by 6.3k against the expectations of a decline by 9.2k. While the Unemployment Rate scaled down to 3.6% in relation to the forecasts and the prior release of 3.8%.

One good news, which delighted the UK households was the upbeat Average Hourly Earnings data. The earnings data improved dramatically to 5.2% vs. the estimates of 5.0% and the prior release of 4.7%. Forced higher payouts to the households due to soaring price pressures were unable to get offset by lower-valued paychecks. Now an increment in households’ earnings will support them to cater to soaring energy bills and food prices.

On Tuesday, the cable nosedived after the release of the elevated US inflation rate. The headline US CPI which inculcates oil and food prices while the calculation landed at 8.3%, higher than the expectations of 8.1%. While the core CPI surges to 6.3% vs. the forecast of 6.1%. Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers are continuously making efforts to cool down the red-hot inflation. All efforts went in vain as price pressures have become more vulnerable now.

This has strengthened the odds of a third consecutive 75 basis points (bps) rate hike by the Fed in its September monetary policy meeting. A rate hike of 75 bps will scale up the borrowing rates to 3.00-3.25% and will dent the growth prospects. Going forward, the US Retail Sales data will be a key trigger. The economic data is not showing any sign of improvement in the overall demand.

Technical Levels: Supports and Resistances

GBPUSD currently trading at 1.1516 at the time of writing. Pair opened at 1.1493 and is trading with a change of 0.2 % .

The pair remains strongly bearish on the daily time frame. It trades below the 20 SMA @ 1.1683, 50 SMA 1.1902, 100 SMA @ 1.2138 and 200 SMA @ 1.2731.

The previous day high was 1.1738 while the previous day low was 1.1492. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 1.1586, expected to provide resistance. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 1.1644, expected to provide resistance.

Note the levels of interest below:

• Pivot support is noted at 1.141, 1.1328, 1.1164
• Pivot resistance is noted at 1.1656, 1.182, 1.1903

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