The Polish currency (PLN) is being weakened by the surprise rate cut from the National Bank of Poland (NBP) as the country prepares for a crucial parliamentary election. At the moment, the exchange rate for USD to PLN stands at 4.37249.
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- Poland is set for a critical parliamentary election, and the NBP’s surprise rate cut continues to weaken the PLN.
The pair currently trades last at 4.37249.
The previous day high was 4.36 while the previous day low was 4.3384. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 4.3467, expected to provide support. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 4.3518, expected to provide support.
The USD/PLN remains pinned to the upside ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) much–anticipated rate call on Wednesday. The Polish Zloty (PLN) remains a beleaguered currency as central bank blunders, European Union (EU) infighting, and government scandals knock around the currently ruling Law & Justice (PiS) party of Poland heading into next month’s critical parliamentary election.
The National Bank of Poland (NBP) recently slashed interest rates to the confusion of market participants everywhere, given the Polish inflation rate still remains above 10%. The Governor of the NBP, Adam Glapinski, has been accused of using the central bank’s authority to bolster support for the PiS.
Adam Glapinski is an open supporter of the PiS, and the surprise rate cut was seen as a way to temporarily ease borrowing and lending costs to improve the vote for the PiS in the upcoming election.
Poland recently moved to ban additional imports of Ukrainian grain, citing a need to protect their economy and their domestic farmers. Shipments of Ukrainian grains have increased in recent months as the Russian blockade of Ukrainian exports sees market excess sloshing into neighboring countries.
The European Union (EU) recently allowed a ban on Ukrainian grain excess to lapse, and Poland is coming under fire after President Andrzej Duda announced that Warsaw would simply disregard orders from Brussels and introduce their own ban on Ukrainian grain.
Poland, along with several other countries in the Eastern EU, are facing formal charges and lawsuits from Ukraine in both the EU trade courts and the World Trade Organization (WTO) over the grain bans.
President Andrzej Duda and the PiS dealt themselves a political blow this week after allegations of the country selling visas for profit to migrants who then used the credentials to travel to countries they would normally be banned from.
The PiS has undergone damage control, unexpectedly firing the part’s foreign minister for consular affairs, and terminating all contracts for external companies that handle visa processing. The head of the Polish foreign ministry’s legal and compliance department was also terminated.
Everything comes just as Poland is about to face an intense parliamentary election, where the PiS is seen struggling to maintain its vote share.
The Polish Zloty has struggled as of late, and continues to fall backwards against the Greenback (USD).
The USD/PLN pair is tapping into recent highs just north of 4.36, and an extended push could see the pair set to challenge fresh six-month highs above last week’s peak of 4.3841.
The pair’s technical stance remains firmly bullish, with both the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence-Divergence (MACD) indicators all but breaking their seals in overbought territory.
The 200-day Simple Moving Average is currently providing support from 4.2377, and the 34-day Exponential Moving Average is racing to cross over into a bullish confirmation, currently pricing in near 4.2100.
Technical Levels: Supports and Resistances
USDPLN currently trading at 4.3612 at the time of writing. Pair opened at 4.3397 and is trading with a change of 0.5 % .
| Overview | Overview.1 | |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Today last price | 4.3612 |
| 1 | Today Daily Change | 0.0215 |
| 2 | Today Daily Change % | 0.5000 |
| 3 | Today daily open | 4.3397 |
The pair remains strongly bullish on the daily timeframe. It trades above its 20 SMA @ 4.2175, 50 SMA 4.1072, 100 SMA @ 4.1214 and 200 SMA @ 4.2381.
| Trends | Trends.1 | |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Daily SMA20 | 4.2175 |
| 1 | Daily SMA50 | 4.1072 |
| 2 | Daily SMA100 | 4.1214 |
| 3 | Daily SMA200 | 4.2381 |
The previous day high was 4.36 while the previous day low was 4.3384. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 4.3467, expected to provide support. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 4.3518, expected to provide support.
Note the levels of interest below:
- Pivot support is noted at 4.3321, 4.3244, 4.3105
- Pivot resistance is noted at 4.3537, 4.3677, 4.3753
| Levels | Levels.1 |
|---|---|
| Previous Daily High | 4.3600 |
| Previous Daily Low | 4.3384 |
| Previous Weekly High | 4.3842 |
| Previous Weekly Low | 4.2881 |
| Previous Monthly High | 4.1554 |
| Previous Monthly Low | 4.0010 |
| Daily Fibonacci 38.2% | 4.3467 |
| Daily Fibonacci 61.8% | 4.3518 |
| Daily Pivot Point S1 | 4.3321 |
| Daily Pivot Point S2 | 4.3244 |
| Daily Pivot Point S3 | 4.3105 |
| Daily Pivot Point R1 | 4.3537 |
| Daily Pivot Point R2 | 4.3677 |
| Daily Pivot Point R3 | 4.3753 |
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