#EURUSD @ 1.07442 struggles to defend the first weekly gain in five, retreats of late. (Pivot Orderbook analysis)
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- EUR/USD struggles to defend the first weekly gain in five, retreats of late.
- ECB’s 0.25% rate hike is mostly given but Fed’s pause hinges on US inflation despite bearing 70% market bets.
- Downbeat EU, US data prods policy hawks but inflation woes need higher rates.
- Tuesday’s US CPI will kick-start the busy calendar and volatile week.
The pair currently trades last at 1.07442.
The previous day high was 1.0785 while the previous day low was 1.0743. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 1.0759, expected to provide resistance. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 1.0769, expected to provide resistance.
EUR/USD renews intraday low near 1.0750 as it pares the first weekly gain in five amid a cautious mood ahead of the key week comprising the European Central Bank (ECB) and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decisions. Apart from the pre-event anxiety, the recent challenges to the sentiment and reassessment of the previous bias about the ECB and the Fed’s next move also weigh on the Euro pair.
That said, the US Dollar Index (DXY) dropped in the last two consecutive weeks to 103.56 at the latest, grinding near the bottom by the press time, as downbeat prints of the US activity numbers for May joined disappointing employment clues to weigh on the US Dollar, despite looming economic fears. That said, the latest United States Initial Jobless Claims jumped to the highest levels since September 2021 whereas the US ISM Services PMI, S&P Global PMIs and Factory Orders also printed softer outcomes for May and pushed back the Fed hawks, which in turn weighed the US Dollar.
Following the downbeat data, market players placed higher bets on the US Federal Reserve’s no rate change decision in its June 13-14 policy meeting. That said, the CMEGroup’s Fed watch tool suggests around 72% chance of the Fed rate being unchanged to the 5%-5.25% range.
On the other hand, growth numbers from the Eurozone and Germany, as well as final readings of the inflation catalysts haven’t been impressive to justify the ECB policymakers’ hawkish bias. That said, concerns about the economic slowdown in the old continent unearth after the recently downbeat statistics, which in turn suggests that the ECB might not be able to increase the rates past this week’s 0.25% rate hike.
It’s worth noting that the inflation clues from Germany and the US may entertain the EUR/USD pair traders as higher numbers can keep the policy hawks hopeful.
Elsewhere, fears of slower economic transition on a broader level join the fears of the US-China tension and higher yields to prod the EUR/USD traders. Amid these plays, Wall Street and yields closed higher but the market sentiment remains divided as the key week begins.
Also read: EUR/USD Weekly Forecast: US CPI, the Fed and the ECB grant action next week
Failure to cross the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) hurdle of around 1.0810 directs EUR/USD towards retesting the 200-day EMA support, near 1.0690 by the press time.
Technical Levels: Supports and Resistances
EURUSD currently trading at 1.0747 at the time of writing. Pair opened at 1.0749 and is trading with a change of -0.02% % .
| Overview | Overview.1 | |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Today last price | 1.0747 |
| 1 | Today Daily Change | -0.0002 |
| 2 | Today Daily Change % | -0.02% |
| 3 | Today daily open | 1.0749 |
The pair is trading below its 20 Daily moving average @ 1.0759, below its 50 Daily moving average @ 1.0885 , below its 100 Daily moving average @ 1.0808 and above its 200 Daily moving average @ 1.052
| Trends | Trends.1 | |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Daily SMA20 | 1.0759 |
| 1 | Daily SMA50 | 1.0885 |
| 2 | Daily SMA100 | 1.0808 |
| 3 | Daily SMA200 | 1.0520 |
The previous day high was 1.0785 while the previous day low was 1.0743. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 1.0759, expected to provide resistance. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 1.0769, expected to provide resistance.
Note the levels of interest below:
- Pivot support is noted at 1.0733, 1.0717, 1.069
- Pivot resistance is noted at 1.0775, 1.0801, 1.0817
| Levels | Levels.1 |
|---|---|
| Previous Daily High | 1.0785 |
| Previous Daily Low | 1.0743 |
| Previous Weekly High | 1.0787 |
| Previous Weekly Low | 1.0667 |
| Previous Monthly High | 1.1092 |
| Previous Monthly Low | 1.0635 |
| Daily Fibonacci 38.2% | 1.0759 |
| Daily Fibonacci 61.8% | 1.0769 |
| Daily Pivot Point S1 | 1.0733 |
| Daily Pivot Point S2 | 1.0717 |
| Daily Pivot Point S3 | 1.0690 |
| Daily Pivot Point R1 | 1.0775 |
| Daily Pivot Point R2 | 1.0801 |
| Daily Pivot Point R3 | 1.0817 |
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