#USDCAD @ 1.34084 licks its wounds at monthly low within one-week-old descending trend channel., @nehcap view: Bearish (Pivot Orderbook analysis)

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• USD/CAD licks its wounds at monthly low within one-week-old descending trend channel.
• BoC is expected to keep the interest rates unchanged, policy signals will be the key to follow for Loonie traders.
• Steady RSI suggests slower grind towards the south, convergence of 100-HMA, channel’s top line prods bulls.
• Three-week-long horizontal area and dovish BoC outlook holds the key for USD/CAD bull’s conviction.

The pair currently trades last at 1.34084.

The previous day high was 1.3452 while the previous day low was 1.339. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 1.3414, expected to provide resistance. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 1.3429, expected to provide resistance.

USD/CAD aptly portrays the Loonie trader’s cautious mood ahead of the Bank of Canada (BoC) Interest Rate Decision as it pares recent losses around a multi-day low heading into Wednesday’s European session. That said, the quote stays defensive near the lowest level in a month despite recently picking up bids to 1.3405.

Also read: USD/CAD braces for BoC near 1.3400 as Oil grinds higher, US Dollar struggles

Apart from the pre-BoC consolidation, the existence of a one-week-long bearish channel also keeps the USD/CAD bears hopeful.

That said, the steady RSI (14) line allows the USD/CAD pair to grind higher within a one-week-old bearish trend channel, currently between 1.3380 and 1.3445-50.

It’s worth noting that the 100-bar Hourly Moving Average (HMA) adds strength to the 1.3445-50 upside hurdle for the pair, a break of which could direct the pair buyers towards a convergence of the 200-HMA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s May 08-25 upside, near 1.3530.

Should the Loonie pair manages to remain firmer past 1.3530, backed by the dovish BoC outcome, a horizontal area comprising multiple levels marked since mid-April, near 1.3570, acts as the last defense of the USD/CAD bears.

On the contrary, a downside break of the stated channel’s bottom line, close to 1.3380 at the latest, won’t hesitate to challenge the previous monthly high of near 1.3315, a break of which could drag the Loonie pair price towards the yearly low marked in February around 1.3265.

Trend: Bearish

Technical Levels: Supports and Resistances

USDCAD currently trading at 1.3409 at the time of writing. Pair opened at 1.3404 and is trading with a change of 0.04% % .

The pair remains strongly bearish on the daily time frame. It trades below the 20 SMA @ 1.3509, 50 SMA 1.3498, 100 SMA @ 1.3518 and 200 SMA @ 1.3511.

The previous day high was 1.3452 while the previous day low was 1.339. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 1.3414, expected to provide resistance. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 1.3429, expected to provide resistance.

Note the levels of interest below:

• Pivot support is noted at 1.3379, 1.3353, 1.3316
• Pivot resistance is noted at 1.3441, 1.3478, 1.3503

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