#XAUUSD @ 1,946.81 Gold Price renews intraday low to extend post-NFP losses., @nehcap view: Limited downside expected (Pivot Orderbook analysis)
…
This is a premium post.
[s2If !current_user_can(access_s2member_level4)]Please register for FREE REGISTER to read full post below containing analysis. In case of any error or you think you are not able to read the full post below, please email us at support#nehcap.com [lwa][/s2If] [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]
- Gold Price renews intraday low to extend post-NFP losses.
- US Dollar cheers hawkish Fed bets, sour sentiment amid sluggish session.
- US Factory Orders, ISM Services PMI eyed for intraday directions.
The pair currently trades last at 1946.81.
The previous day high was 1983.5 while the previous day low was 1947.56. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 1961.29, expected to provide resistance. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 1969.77, expected to provide resistance.
Gold Price (XAU/USD) stays on the bear’s radar for the second consecutive day as the precious metal renews intraday low near $1,945, extending the post-NFP losses amid to early Monday amid firmer US Dollar and the Treasury bond yields.
That said, the US Dollar Index (DXY) prints mild gains around 104.12 as it keeps the previous day’s recovery from a one-week low amid Monday’s sluggish Asian session. In doing so, the greenback’s gauge versus the six major currencies cheers the market’s fears of higher Federal Reserve (Fed) rates and the US-China tension, not to forget the fresh war headlines surrounding Russia and Ukraine.
Apart from that, an increase in the odds supporting June’s 0.25% Fed rate hike and a reduction in the market’s bets of a Fed rate cut in 2023 also seem to favor the US Dollar and yields, which in turn exerts downside pressure on the Gold price amid a sluggish start to the week. It’s worth noting that Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) surprised markets with a strong outcome and renewed hawkish concerns about the US central bank. That said, the US-China tension about Taiwan joins the headlines suggesting a heavy battle between Russia and Ukraine also weighs on the sentiment and allows the DXY to remain firmer, which in turn favors the Gold sellers.
Alternatively, recently firmer China PMIs and doubts about the Fed’s capacity to keep the rates higher for longer challenge the Gold bears.
Amid these plays, the US 10-year and two-year Treasury bond yields recover after snapping a three-week uptrend by the end of the last Friday. That said, the S&P500 Futures also portray the risk-off mood by mild losses as it retreats from the highest levels since August 2022.
To sum up, sour sentiment joins hawkish Fed bets to weigh on the Gold price but a lack of major data/events and upbeat catalysts from China put a floor under the quote ahead of the US Factory Orders and ISM Services PMI for May.
Gold price justifies the downside break of a short-term bullish channel, as well as the 200-SMA, as it approaches the yearly low marked in May at around $1,932. Adding strength to the downside bias are the bearish MACD signals.
It’s worth noting, however, that the RSI (14) line is in the oversold territory, which in turn suggests limited downside room for the XAU/USD past $1,932.
The same highlights the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of the Gold Price moves between May 10 to June 01, around $1910, as the key support to watch afterward.
Meanwhile, the Gold price recovery may initially aim for the 200-SMA hurdle of around $1,960 before challenging the bottom line of an ascending trend channel stretched from the last Tuesday, close to $1,970 at the latest.
Trend: Limited downside expected
Technical Levels: Supports and Resistances
XAUUSD currently trading at 1946.78 at the time of writing. Pair opened at 1948.02 and is trading with a change of -0.06% % .
| Overview | Overview.1 | |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Today last price | 1946.78 |
| 1 | Today Daily Change | -1.24 |
| 2 | Today Daily Change % | -0.06% |
| 3 | Today daily open | 1948.02 |
The pair is trading below its 20 Daily moving average @ 1980.91, below its 50 Daily moving average @ 1991.4 , above its 100 Daily moving average @ 1939.1 and above its 200 Daily moving average @ 1835.68
| Trends | Trends.1 | |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Daily SMA20 | 1980.91 |
| 1 | Daily SMA50 | 1991.40 |
| 2 | Daily SMA100 | 1939.10 |
| 3 | Daily SMA200 | 1835.68 |
The previous day high was 1983.5 while the previous day low was 1947.56. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 1961.29, expected to provide resistance. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 1969.77, expected to provide resistance.
Note the levels of interest below:
- Pivot support is noted at 1935.89, 1923.75, 1899.95
- Pivot resistance is noted at 1971.83, 1995.63, 2007.77
| Levels | Levels.1 |
|---|---|
| Previous Daily High | 1983.50 |
| Previous Daily Low | 1947.56 |
| Previous Weekly High | 1983.50 |
| Previous Weekly Low | 1932.12 |
| Previous Monthly High | 2079.76 |
| Previous Monthly Low | 1932.12 |
| Daily Fibonacci 38.2% | 1961.29 |
| Daily Fibonacci 61.8% | 1969.77 |
| Daily Pivot Point S1 | 1935.89 |
| Daily Pivot Point S2 | 1923.75 |
| Daily Pivot Point S3 | 1899.95 |
| Daily Pivot Point R1 | 1971.83 |
| Daily Pivot Point R2 | 1995.63 |
| Daily Pivot Point R3 | 2007.77 |
[/s2If]
Nehcap Expert Advisor
The NEHCAP MT4 EA is high quality professional trading system geared to generate returns without using GRID or martingales. Each trade has strict risk per trade parameter. The pairs under management include EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDCAD, AUDNZD,GBPAUD, EURAUD, EURCAD, CHFJPY and many more.
The system is trading live: LIVE ACCOUNT TRACKING
You can run it free. Apply for a free trial and track our account. Buy the system or use profit share mechanism to generate returns on your MT4.
Join Our Telegram Group
