US Dollar Index picks up bids to refresh intraday high, keeping Friday’s rebound despite witnessing the first weekly loss in four. (Pivot Orderbook analysis)
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- US Dollar Index picks up bids to refresh intraday high, keeping Friday’s rebound despite witnessing the first weekly loss in four.
- Upbeat US NFP, debt-ceiling deal optimism allow US Dollar to remain firmer.
- Fresh fears about US-China ties, pre-data anxiety adds strength to DXY run-up.
- Absence of major catalysts, pre-Fed blackout prod greenback buyers amid receding hawkish bias for Fed, market’s cautious optimism.
The pair currently trades last at 104.15.
The previous day high was 104.09 while the previous day low was 103.38. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 103.82, expected to provide support. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 103.65, expected to provide support.
US Dollar Index (DXY) holds onto the previous day’s recovery moves amid a sluggish start to the week. That said, the DXY renews its intraday high near 104.15 while stretching the post-NFP rebound amid mixed catalysts and an absence of major data/events. In doing so, the greenback’s gauge versus the six major currencies also cheers the fresh fears about the US-China ties while also portraying the market’s cautious optimism ahead of the US ISM Services PMI and Factory Orders.
DXY bounced off more than a week’s low after the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) renewed hawkish Fed concerns. That said, the US jobs report for May surprised markets with a jump in the headline Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) by 339K versus 190K expected and 294K prior (revised). It’s worth noting, however, that the Unemployment Rate also rose to 3.7% from 3.4% prior, versus 3.5% market forecasts. It should be noted, that the Average Hourly Earnings eased whereas the Labor Force Participation Rate remain the same as previous.
Elsewhere, the Shangri-la Dialogue in Singapore renewed geopolitical fears surrounding the US and China amid no meeting of the policymakers of both nations, as well as an incident suggesting escalating war fears among the Sino-American navies in the Taiwan Strait. Furthermore, news from Russian Defense Ministry suggesting large-scale military operations by Ukraine also weigh on the sentiment and put a floor under the US Dollar.
On the contrary, US President Joe Biden signed the debt-ceiling bill and avoided the ‘catastrophic’ default. Also negative for the DXY were concerns suggesting slower rate hikes from the major central banks. Furthermore, the global rating agencies remain cautious about the US financial market credibility and prod the US Dollar despite the price-positive move on Friday. “Fitch Ratings said on Friday the United States’ “AAA” credit rating would remain on negative watch, despite the agreement that will allow the government to meet its obligations,” said Reuters.
While portraying the mood, Wall Street closed higher and the US Treasury bond yields marked the first weekly loss in four. It’s worth observing that the S&P500 Futures print mild losses amid mixed sentiment.
Looking ahead, US Factory Orders for April and ISM Services PMI for May will be important to watch for the intraday directions as the latest US jobs report renew hawkish bias for the Federal Reserve (Fed) and allow the US Dollar to remain on the buyer’s radar.
A clear rebound from the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), around 103.35 by the press time, allows the US Dollar Index (DXY) buyers to remain hopeful of witnessing further upside. However, a successful break of a downward-sloping resistance line from November 2022, close to 104.15 at the latest, becomes necessary for the DXY bull’s conviction.
Technical Levels: Supports and Resistances
EURUSD currently trading at 104.15 at the time of writing. Pair opened at 104.04 and is trading with a change of 0.11% % .
| Overview | Overview.1 | |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Today last price | 104.15 |
| 1 | Today Daily Change | 0.11 |
| 2 | Today Daily Change % | 0.11% |
| 3 | Today daily open | 104.04 |
The pair is trading above its 20 Daily moving average @ 103.16, above its 50 Daily moving average @ 102.39 , above its 100 Daily moving average @ 102.92 and below its 200 Daily moving average @ 105.45
| Trends | Trends.1 | |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Daily SMA20 | 103.16 |
| 1 | Daily SMA50 | 102.39 |
| 2 | Daily SMA100 | 102.92 |
| 3 | Daily SMA200 | 105.45 |
The previous day high was 104.09 while the previous day low was 103.38. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 103.82, expected to provide support. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 103.65, expected to provide support.
Note the levels of interest below:
- Pivot support is noted at 103.58, 103.13, 102.87
- Pivot resistance is noted at 104.29, 104.54, 105.0
| Levels | Levels.1 |
|---|---|
| Previous Daily High | 104.09 |
| Previous Daily Low | 103.38 |
| Previous Weekly High | 104.70 |
| Previous Weekly Low | 103.38 |
| Previous Monthly High | 104.70 |
| Previous Monthly Low | 101.03 |
| Daily Fibonacci 38.2% | 103.82 |
| Daily Fibonacci 61.8% | 103.65 |
| Daily Pivot Point S1 | 103.58 |
| Daily Pivot Point S2 | 103.13 |
| Daily Pivot Point S3 | 102.87 |
| Daily Pivot Point R1 | 104.29 |
| Daily Pivot Point R2 | 104.54 |
| Daily Pivot Point R3 | 105.00 |
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