#EURUSD @ 1.07103 US adds 339K jobs, beating estimates; slips by 0.43%. (Pivot Orderbook analysis)
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- US adds 339K jobs, beating estimates; EUR/USD slips by 0.43%.
- Federal Reserve’s hawkish outlook hints at a possible July FFR increase.
- Positive economic indicators from Europe, including Italy’s Industrial Production and Spain’s Unemployment Change.
The pair currently trades last at 1.07103.
The previous day high was 1.0768 while the previous day low was 1.0662. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 1.0728, expected to provide resistance. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 1.0703, expected to provide support.
EUR/USD slumps from weekly highs reached as a knee-jerk reaction to a solid US jobs report, driving the pair towards 1.0779 before sliding toward daily lows. The labor market in the United States (US) stayed strong but saw slight signs of weakness. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.0715, printing losses of 0.43%.
In early trading, before Wall Street opened, the US Department of Labor revealed May employment figures, with the economy adding 339K jobs, above estimates of 190K. Even though the figure is positive for the economy, the Unemployment Rate ticked to 3.7%, from 53-year lows of 3.4%, sought by the Fed as a sign that can undermine consumer spending. Average Hourly earnings rose 0.3%, up 4.3% YoY, less than April’s figure of 4.4%.
Given the backdrop, traders pricing in a hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed), despite skipping the June monetary policy meeting, expect another increase to the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) in July toward the 5.25%-5.50% area. But, the rising unemployment rate would make the Fed’s job easier as it scrambles to tame high inflation and double its target.
Since the data release, the EUR/USD pair lost 40 pips or 0.40% intraday, threatening to get toward the 1.0700 figure as the greenback limps its wounds. The US Dollar Index (DXY) climbs 0.44%, again above the 104.000 figure.
Events that took the headlines over the last couple of weeks, like the US debt-ceiling crisis, were solved late Thursday night, with the US Senate passing the bill, set to be signed by US President Joe Biden. The ceiling would be raised, though we would witness the same soap opera by January 1, 2025.
Across the pond, the latest European Central Bank (ECB) meeting minutes showed that hawks were striving for a 50 bps, but “consensus” voted for a 25 bps at the expense of further tightening ahead. Data-wise, the economic docket showed Industrial Production in Italy, at 0.8% MoM, above estimates of 0.3%, while the Unemployment Change in Spain hit -49.3K, above forecasts of -40.1 K.
Technical Levels: Supports and Resistances
EURUSD currently trading at 1.0713 at the time of writing. Pair opened at 1.0762 and is trading with a change of -0.46 % .
| Overview | Overview.1 | |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Today last price | 1.0713 |
| 1 | Today Daily Change | -0.0049 |
| 2 | Today Daily Change % | -0.4600 |
| 3 | Today daily open | 1.0762 |
The pair is trading below its 20 Daily moving average @ 1.0828, below its 50 Daily moving average @ 1.0898 , below its 100 Daily moving average @ 1.0814 and above its 200 Daily moving average @ 1.0498
| Trends | Trends.1 | |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Daily SMA20 | 1.0828 |
| 1 | Daily SMA50 | 1.0898 |
| 2 | Daily SMA100 | 1.0814 |
| 3 | Daily SMA200 | 1.0498 |
The previous day high was 1.0768 while the previous day low was 1.0662. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 1.0728, expected to provide resistance. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 1.0703, expected to provide support.
Note the levels of interest below:
- Pivot support is noted at 1.0693, 1.0624, 1.0587
- Pivot resistance is noted at 1.08, 1.0837, 1.0906
| Levels | Levels.1 |
|---|---|
| Previous Daily High | 1.0768 |
| Previous Daily Low | 1.0662 |
| Previous Weekly High | 1.0831 |
| Previous Weekly Low | 1.0702 |
| Previous Monthly High | 1.1092 |
| Previous Monthly Low | 1.0635 |
| Daily Fibonacci 38.2% | 1.0728 |
| Daily Fibonacci 61.8% | 1.0703 |
| Daily Pivot Point S1 | 1.0693 |
| Daily Pivot Point S2 | 1.0624 |
| Daily Pivot Point S3 | 1.0587 |
| Daily Pivot Point R1 | 1.0800 |
| Daily Pivot Point R2 | 1.0837 |
| Daily Pivot Point R3 | 1.0906 |
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