Room for USD strength to reverse further after it became more extreme last year – MUFG
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USD peak in place? The longest and second-largest US Dollar bull run may be ending, according to analysts at MUFG Bank.
“USD strength became more extreme last year. The USD reached its highest level against our equally-weighted basket of other G10 currencies since the early 2000’s. At the peak in October, the USD was over 2 standard deviations stronger than the average over the last 40 years.”
“Similar extreme levels of USD overvaluation were last recorded in the early 2000’s and mid-1980’s and subsequently proved to be long-term bearish turning points for the USD. On both occasions, the USD then fell by around 40%. In comparison, the USD has declined so far by around 8% since the peak in October thereby leaving room for the adjustment lower to extend further in the coming years.”
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