NZ: Labour market tightness to show signs of easing in Q1 – TDS
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The Global Strategy Team at TD Securities (TDS) offers a brief preview of the upcoming release of the quarterly employment details from New Zealand, scheduled during the Asian session on Wednesday.
“We expect labour market tightness to show signs of easing in Q1, with the unemployment rate edging higher to 3.6% (RBNZ: 3.5%) from 3.4% in the previous quarter. We expect some disruption to the jobs market in Q1 given the impact of Cyclone Gabrielle and see flat employment growth over the quarter. However, a fall in the participation rate could help cap a rise in the unemployment rate. We expect private wages to rise at a still-firm pace of 1.0% q/q, bringing the annual increase in the Labour Cost Index (LCI) to 4.6% y/y, a new record. After its surprise 50bps hike, the RBNZ has shown its resolve to tame inflation and a softer labour market print may not be enough to dissuade them from hiking another 25bps in May.”
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