#USDJPY @ 136.632 rallies to fresh highs in the Tokyo opening hour. (Pivot Orderbook analysis)
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- USD/JPY rallies to fresh highs in the Tokyo opening hour.
- Bulls eye 137.00 with the eyes on the US yields.
The pair currently trades last at 136.632.
The previous day high was 136.56 while the previous day low was 133.35. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 135.34, expected to provide support. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 134.58, expected to provide support.
There was a positive tone to markets on Friday The S&P 500 was up 0.8% and the Nikkei has rallied in the open and USD/JPY has followed suit, rising 0.34% so far to fresh highs for April of 136.77.
The Bank of Japan kept its easing policy on Friday and the Yen has weakened to a 7-week low against the US Dollar as the BoJ decision re-ignites emphasis on US Treasuries and the Federal Reserve.
The BoJ kept monetary policy unchanged and said it would “patiently” continue with monetary easing. The members voted 9-0 to maintain its policy balance rate at 0.1% and keep its 10-year JGB yield target at about 0%. At the same time, the BoJ cut its 2023 Japan Gross Domestic Product estimate to 1.4% from a previous estimate of 1.7% and raised its 2023 core Consumer Price Index estimate to 1.8% from 1.6%. Meanwhile, the BoJ scrapped its forward guidance on interest rates and said it would patiently continue with monetary easing. Also, Governor Kazuo Ueda said the Japanese economy faces a bigger risk from premature tightening than from a delay.
´´While giving BoJ more flexibility, we continue to think that a move in YCC is not that far off. A June move is probably too early now, but a shift later in H2 2023 still looks likely,´´ analysts at TD Securities explained.
´´While the 1-1.5y time frame for the BoJ review is much longer than expected, it is not clear that this will be overwhelmingly bearish for the yen.´´
´´USD/JPY extended its upward momentum into Ueda’s press conference, but we would expect strategic interest to fade into 137 (~200dma).´´
´´This market is asymmetric with a preference to hold on to a receiver bias in the US. We have also seen tests into 3.60% in US10s as a solid point to fade. It’s not obvious that the BOJ will remain idle for 1-1.5 years on YCC. But the Fed is very likely going to be cutting then,´´ the analysts added.
In data, meanwhile, Japan’s March Industrial Production fell -0.7% YoY, a smaller decline than expectations of -1.2% YoY. Retail Sales climbed +0.6% MoM, stronger than expectations of +0.3%. Japan Tokyo Apr CPI ex-fresh food and energy rose +3.8% YoY, stronger than expectations of +3.5% YoY and the biggest increase in 41 years.
USD/JPY is making fresh highs with 137.00 in focus.
Technical Levels: Supports and Resistances
USDJPY currently trading at 136.45 at the time of writing. Pair opened at 136.31 and is trading with a change of 0.1 % .
| Overview | Overview.1 | |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Today last price | 136.45 |
| 1 | Today Daily Change | 0.14 |
| 2 | Today Daily Change % | 0.10 |
| 3 | Today daily open | 136.31 |
The pair is trading above its 20 Daily moving average @ 133.49, above its 50 Daily moving average @ 133.83 , above its 100 Daily moving average @ 132.89 and below its 200 Daily moving average @ 136.99
| Trends | Trends.1 | |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Daily SMA20 | 133.49 |
| 1 | Daily SMA50 | 133.83 |
| 2 | Daily SMA100 | 132.89 |
| 3 | Daily SMA200 | 136.99 |
The previous day high was 136.56 while the previous day low was 133.35. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 135.34, expected to provide support. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 134.58, expected to provide support.
Note the levels of interest below:
- Pivot support is noted at 134.25, 132.19, 131.04
- Pivot resistance is noted at 137.47, 138.62, 140.68
| Levels | Levels.1 |
|---|---|
| Previous Daily High | 136.56 |
| Previous Daily Low | 133.35 |
| Previous Weekly High | 136.56 |
| Previous Weekly Low | 133.01 |
| Previous Monthly High | 136.56 |
| Previous Monthly Low | 130.63 |
| Daily Fibonacci 38.2% | 135.34 |
| Daily Fibonacci 61.8% | 134.58 |
| Daily Pivot Point S1 | 134.25 |
| Daily Pivot Point S2 | 132.19 |
| Daily Pivot Point S3 | 131.04 |
| Daily Pivot Point R1 | 137.47 |
| Daily Pivot Point R2 | 138.62 |
| Daily Pivot Point R3 | 140.68 |
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