#XAUUSD @ 1,818.05 Gold price attracts some buying amid a modest US Dollar pullback from a multi-month top. (Pivot Orderbook analysis)

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• Gold price attracts some buying amid a modest US Dollar pullback from a multi-month top.
• Bets for a 50 bps rate hike by the Federal Reserve to limit the USD downfall and cap gains.
• Traders might also prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the key US jobs data on Friday.

The pair currently trades last at 1818.05.

The previous day high was 1824.33 while the previous day low was 1809.46. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 1815.14, expected to provide support. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 1818.65, expected to provide resistance.

Gold price edges higher on Thursday, albeit lacks any follow-through buying and remains confined well within the previous day’s broader trading range. The XAU/USD currently trades just above the $1,815 level and seems vulnerable to prolonging its downward trajectory witnessed since early February.

The US Dollar (USD) bulls opt to take some profits off the table following the recent strong bullish run to over a three-month top. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor lending some support to the US Dollar-denominated Gold price. Apart from this, a generally softer risk tone – amid looming recession risks – benefits traditional safe-haven assets and acts as a tailwind for the XAU/USD. The upside, however, remains capped amid the prospects for more aggressive policy tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed).

In fact, the markets are now pricing a greater chance of a 50 basis points (bps) lift-off at the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on March 21-22. The bets were reaffirmed by hawkish comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday, reiterating that interest rates would have to go higher and possibly faster to tame stubbornly high inflation. This remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields and keeps a lid on any meaningful gains for the non-yielding Gold price.

Hawkish Fed expectations, meanwhile, should help limit the downside for the USD, which, in turn, warrants some caution before placing bullish bets around the XAU/USD. Traders might also prefer to move to the sidelines and await the release of the closely-watched monthly jobs data from the United States (US) – popularly known as NFP – on Friday. Hence, strong follow-through buying is needed to confirm that the Gold price has formed a bottom near the $1,800 mark and positioning for a further appreciating move.

Market participants now look to the US economic docket, featuring the release of Challenger Job Cuts and the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims data later during the early North American session. This, along with the US bond yields, should influence the USD price dynamics. Apart from this, the broader risk sentiment could provide some impetus to Gold price. The fundamental backdrop, however, favours bearish traders and suggests that the path of least resistance for the XAU/USD is to the downside.

From a technical perspective, bearish traders need to wait for a sustained break below the $1,800 round figure, which coincides with the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), before placing fresh bets. The gold price might then accelerate the fall towards testing the next relevant support near the $1,775 horizontal zone before eventually dropping to the $1,740-$1,738 region.

On the flip side, any subsequent move beyond the overnight swing high, around the $1,824 area, could attract fresh sellers near the $1,835 horizontal zone. A sustained strength beyond the latter could trigger a short-covering rally and lift Gold price towards the monthly peak, around the $1,858 region. This is followed by the 50-day SMA barrier, currently near the $1,869 region, which should keep a lid on any further gains, at least for the time being.

Technical Levels: Supports and Resistances

XAUUSD currently trading at 1817.83 at the time of writing. Pair opened at 1813.44 and is trading with a change of 0.24 % .

The pair is trading below its 20 Daily moving average @ 1836.7, below its 50 Daily moving average @ 1869.82 , above its 100 Daily moving average @ 1806.3 and above its 200 Daily moving average @ 1775.16

The previous day high was 1824.33 while the previous day low was 1809.46. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 1815.14, expected to provide support. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 1818.65, expected to provide resistance.

Note the levels of interest below:

• Pivot support is noted at 1807.16, 1800.87, 1792.29
• Pivot resistance is noted at 1822.03, 1830.61, 1836.9

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