#USDINR @ 82.7100 grinds higher around monthly peak, bulls take a breather after three-day uptrend. (Pivot Orderbook analysis)

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• USD/INR grinds higher around monthly peak, bulls take a breather after three-day uptrend.
• Cautious sentiment ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech, RBI interest rate decision probes the Indian Rupee pair traders.
• Firmer Oil price, hopes of dovish guidance from RBI joins hawkish hopes from Fed to keep buyers hopeful.
• Reuters poll signals hardships for Indian Rupee buyers moving forward.

The pair currently trades last at 82.7100.

The previous day high was 82.8518 while the previous day low was 82.2335. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 82.6156, expected to provide support. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 82.4697, expected to provide support.

USD/INR traders struggle for clear directions around the highest levels in a month, making rounds to 82.80 during the initial hour of Tuesday’s Indian trading session. In doing so, the Indian Rupee pair portrays the market’s cautious mood ahead of the key events, namely a speech from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) monetary policy announcements, up for publishing on late Tuesday and early Wednesday respectively.

Talking about the pair’s positive catalysts, growth optimism conveyed by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and President Joe Biden seemed to have probed the US Dollar bulls. The same joined hawkish Fed talks seem to put a floor under the US Treasury bond yields, as well as the US Dollar. “The strong labor market probably means ‘we have to do a little more work,’” said Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphel Bostic in an interview with Bloomberg.

On the same line could be upbeat prices of Oil as it negatively affects the Indian Rupee (INR) due to the nation’s reliance on energy imports and record deficit. That said, WTI crude oil rises 0.70% intraday to $75.15 as it extends the previous day’s rebound from a two-month low.

It’s worth noting that the hopes of the RBI’s dovish hike also propel the USD/INR prices. The Reserve Bank of India is also near the end of a modest campaign to increase interest rates, and is due to deliver a final 25 basis point rise, to 6.50%, on Wednesday, per Reuters. The news also mentioned that the central bank’s inflation forecast and management of the government’s borrowing program will be scrutinized, while Governor Shaktikanta Das might also face questions on the banking sector’s exposure to the embattled Adani Group.

Elsewhere, fears of a softer Indian Rupee, per a Reuters poll, also keep USD/INR buyers hopeful. “The latest Reuters poll of 43 foreign exchange analysts, taken after the Feb. 1 budget, showed the rupee strengthening just over 1% to 81.75 per dollar in the next six months,” said the survey findings.

Meanwhile, fears of a surprise move by the RBI and the recently upbeat budget seem to challenge the USD/INR pair buyers amid the broad pullback in the US Treasury bond yields and the US Dollar amid a sluggish Asian session on Tuesday.

Amid these plays, S&P 500 Futures print mild gains while stocks in Australia print mild losses at the latest.

Moving on, Fed Chair Powell’s capacity praises latest upbeat US data could help USD/INR bulls but RBI’s surprise hawkish move may probe the pair buyers. Also important to watch will be US President Joe Biden’s State of the Union (SOTU).

A downward-sloping trend line from October 2022 challenges the immediate USD/INR upside near 82.80 ahead of the late 2022 peak surrounding 83.20, a break of which can’t stop the bulls from refreshing the all-time high. Meanwhile, pullback moves need a daily closing below the 100-DMA support surrounding 82.00 to recall the Indian Rupee pair bears.

Technical Levels: Supports and Resistances

USDINR currently trading at 82.752 at the time of writing. Pair opened at 82.7526 and is trading with a change of -0.00% % .

The pair remains strongly bullish on the daily timeframe. It trades above its 20 SMA @ 81.6117, 50 SMA 82.1, 100 SMA @ 81.9644 and 200 SMA @ 80.3717.

The previous day high was 82.8518 while the previous day low was 82.2335. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 82.6156, expected to provide support. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 82.4697, expected to provide support.

Note the levels of interest below:

• Pivot support is noted at 82.3734, 81.9943, 81.7551
• Pivot resistance is noted at 82.9918, 83.231, 83.6101

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