#EURUSD @ 1.07351 consolidates recent losses around one-month low, probes three-day downtrend. (Pivot Orderbook analysis)

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• EUR/USD consolidates recent losses around one-month low, probes three-day downtrend.
• ECB hawks forget the last week’s failed attempt to please bulls, upbeat EU data also favors Euro buyers.
• Receding concerns about US recession, hawkish Fedspeak exerts downside pressure on the pair.
• Fed Chair Powell, ECB’s Schnabel could entertain traders, Sino-American news are important too.

The pair currently trades last at 1.07351.

The previous day high was 1.0799 while the previous day low was 1.071. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 1.0744, expected to provide resistance. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 1.0765, expected to provide resistance.

EUR/USD licks its wounds around 1.0735 while probing bears at the monthly low, after a three-day dominance, during early Tuesday. In doing so, the major currency pair portrays the market’s indecision ahead of the key events, namely speeches from the European Central Bank (ECB) and Federal Reserve (Fed) officials.

The Euro failed to cheer hawkish ECB speak, as well as firmer Eurozone data, on Monday as it dropped to the lowest levels since January 09 amid broad US Dollar recovery.

“The risk of doing too little dwarfs thr risk of overtightening policy,” European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Robert Holzmann said on Monday.

Talking about the data, the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence index improves further to -8.0 in February from -17.5 in January vs. -12.8 expected. On the same line, Eurozone Retail Sales arrived at -2.8% YoY in January vs. -2.7% expected and -2.5% prior. Furthermore, German Factory Orders growth jumped to 3.2% MoM following an upwardly revised 4.4% fall in December, as well as 2.2% market forecasts.

On the other hand, the US economic calendar was mostly silent but growth optimism by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and President Joe Biden joined hawkish Fed talks to propel the US Treasury bond yields, as well as the US Dollar. “The strong labor market probably means ‘we have to do a little more work,’” said Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphel Bostic in an interview with Bloomberg.

That said, a dash on the US diplomatic visit to Beijing and China’s harsh reaction to the US shooting down its balloon by terming it a spying attempt triggered the market’s risk-off mood and weigh on the EUR/USD pair the previous day. However, the latest comments from US President Joe Bide appear soothing on the matter as he said, “The balloon incident does not weaken US-China relations.”

Against this backdrop, S&P 500 Futures print mild gains but the US 10-year Treasury bond struggle for clear directions around 3.63%, after a two-day rebound from the monthly low.

Looking forward, sluggish markets and pre-event anxiety may restrict immediate EUR/USD moves ahead of German Industrial Production for December, a speech from ECB policymaker Isabel Schnabel and Fed Chair Jerome Powell, not to forget US President Joe Biden’s State of the Union (SOTU) comments.

Although the ECB hawks may try to keep the EUR/USD afloat, major attention will be given to the US policymakers’ statements for clear directions amid hawkish Fed bets.

A sustained downside break of an ascending trend line from early November, around 1.0850 by the press time, keeps EUR/USD sellers hopeful amid bearish MACD signals and the downbeat RSI (14), not oversold. That said, the pair’s further downside towards the 50-DMA, around 1.0690, appears imminent unless the quote stays below 1.0850.

Technical Levels: Supports and Resistances

EURUSD currently trading at 1.0736 at the time of writing. Pair opened at 1.073 and is trading with a change of 0.06 % .

The pair is trading below its 20 Daily moving average @ 1.0841, above its 50 Daily moving average @ 1.0685 , above its 100 Daily moving average @ 1.0327 and above its 200 Daily moving average @ 1.032

The previous day high was 1.0799 while the previous day low was 1.071. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 1.0744, expected to provide resistance. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 1.0765, expected to provide resistance.

Note the levels of interest below:

• Pivot support is noted at 1.0693, 1.0657, 1.0604
• Pivot resistance is noted at 1.0782, 1.0835, 1.0872

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