#USDINR @ 81.1825 bears take a breather around two-week low., @nehcap view: Further downside expected (Pivot Orderbook analysis)

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• USD/INR bears take a breather around two-week low.
• Sustained trading below 50-DMA, bearish oscillators favor sellers.
• Four-month-old support line, 100-DMA to challenge bears, descending trend line from late October adds to the upside filters.

The pair currently trades last at 81.1825.

The previous day high was 81.4192 while the previous day low was 80.9855. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 81.1512, expected to provide support. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 81.2535, expected to provide resistance.

USD/INR stays defensive around the lowest levels in two weeks, steady around 81.10 by the press time, as bears pause after a four-day south-run during early Friday. Even so, the Indian Rupee (INR) buyers remain hopeful to extend the latest downturn.

That said, the USD/INR pair’s failure to cross the 50-DMA joins the Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD) indicator’s bears signals and downbeat conditions of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) line, placed at 14, to keep bears hopeful.

With this, the intraday sellers could keep attacking the 81.00 threshold ahead of reaching the key support line from early August, near 80.90.

Following that, the 100-DMA level surrounding 80.77 and November’s low of 80.47 could lure the bears afterward.

Alternatively, a convergence of the three-week-old descending trend line and the 50-DMA highlights 81.90 as strong resistance for the USD/INR bulls to crack before retaking control.

Even so, a downward-sloping resistance line from October 20, close to 82.35, could challenge the pair’s further upside.

In a case where AUD/USD remains firmer past 82.35, the odds of its run-up towards the record high marked in October around 83.30 can’t be ruled out.

Trend: Further downside expected

Technical Levels: Supports and Resistances

USDINR currently trading at 81.1555 at the time of writing. Pair opened at 81.1361 and is trading with a change of 0.02% % .

The pair is trading below its 20 Daily moving average @ 81.4252, below its 50 Daily moving average @ 81.8926 , above its 100 Daily moving average @ 80.7804 and above its 200 Daily moving average @ 78.9662

The previous day high was 81.4192 while the previous day low was 80.9855. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 81.1512, expected to provide support. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 81.2535, expected to provide resistance.

Note the levels of interest below:

• Pivot support is noted at 80.9414, 80.7466, 80.5077
• Pivot resistance is noted at 81.375, 81.6139, 81.8086

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