#USDINR @ 81.0680 has dropped to near 81.00 as the Fed has confirmed the moderation of policy tightening. (Pivot Orderbook analysis)

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• USD/INR has dropped to near 81.00 as the Fed has confirmed the moderation of policy tightening.
• The US Dollar has faced immense pressure on less-hawkish Fed commentary and weaker US ADP Employment data.
• Gains in the Indian rupee could remain capped due to firmer oil prices.

The pair currently trades last at 81.0680.

The previous day high was 81.7906 while the previous day low was 81.2087. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 81.431, expected to provide resistance. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 81.5683, expected to provide resistance.

The USD/INR pair has witnessed intense selling pressure at open as the risk aversion theme has vanished entirely. The asset has dropped to near the round-level support of 81.00 amid a sharp sell-off in the US Dollar Index (DXY). The pair has continued its three-day losing streak and has refreshed its two-week low at 81.03.

Meanwhile, the USD Index has turned lackluster after dropping to near 105.50. S&P500 futures are holding their Wednesday’s gains and showing no signs of exhaustion. The 10-year US Treasury yields are showing a minor recovery after dropping to near 3.60%. The US Treasury bonds have received significant interest from the market participants as Fed Powell’s commentary bolstered rate hike slowdown chatters.

As the Federal Reserve (Fed) has decided to consider economic prospects too along with the foremost priority of bringing price stability, the US Dollar might lose its dictatorship ahead.

Going forward, investors will focus on the United States Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, which will release on Friday. The official payrolls report could disclose subdued employment generation if the US Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Employment data is being considered. Apart from that, average earnings data also holds significant importance.

After containing galloping perishable and durable goods prices, higher earnings will create troubles for the Fed policymakers. Post a slowdown in inflation led by accelerating interest rates, households will remain with higher earnings that could trigger retail demand.

On the Indian rupee front, aggressive buying in Indian equities is indicating robust buying by Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs), which is strengthening the Indian rupee. The Indian rupee rally is expected to remain capped as oil prices have soared vigorously led by three consecutive drawdowns in oil inventories reported by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Technical Levels: Supports and Resistances

USDINR currently trading at 81.0235 at the time of writing. Pair opened at 81.2826 and is trading with a change of -0.32 % .

The pair is trading below its 20 Daily moving average @ 81.5034, below its 50 Daily moving average @ 81.8911 , above its 100 Daily moving average @ 80.7678 and above its 200 Daily moving average @ 78.9377

The previous day high was 81.7906 while the previous day low was 81.2087. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 81.431, expected to provide resistance. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 81.5683, expected to provide resistance.

Note the levels of interest below:

• Pivot support is noted at 81.064, 80.8454, 80.4822
• Pivot resistance is noted at 81.6459, 82.0091, 82.2277

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