#USDIDR @ 15,635.0 bounces off two-week low on softer Indonesia Inflation. (Pivot Orderbook analysis)

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• USD/IDR bounces off two-week low on softer Indonesia Inflation.
• Indonesia Inflation, Core Inflation missed upbeat forecasts in November.
• Hopes of Fed’s smaller rate hikes, China-linked optimism underpin bearish bias.
• US Core PCE Price Index, ISM Manufacturing PMI appears crucial for immediate directions.

The pair currently trades last at 15635.0.

The previous day high was 15749.0 while the previous day low was 15639.7. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 15681.4526, expected to provide resistance. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 15707.2474, expected to provide resistance.

USD/IDR rebounds from intraday low to $15,635 during early Thursday as downbeat Indonesia inflation numbers allowed bears to take a breather at the lowest level in a fortnight. Also likely to have probed the pair sellers could be the latest shift in the market’s mood ahead of the key US data.

Indonesia’s Inflation number eased to 5.42% YoY versus 5.49% expected and 5.71% prior whereas the Core Inflation dropped to 3.30% compared to 3.40% market forecasts and 3.31% previous readings. Even so, the inflation number remains beyond Bank Indonesia’s target range of 2% to 4.0% and hence favors the Indonesia Rupiah (IDR) buyers.

It’s worth noting that BI Governor Perry Warjiyo said on Wednesday that they would maintain a front-loaded and pre-emptive interest rate policy next year to control inflation.

On the other hand, dovish comments from the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, including Chairman Jerome Powell, joined softer US employment-linked data to weigh on the USD/IDR price the previous day. On the same line was the easing in the virus-led activity controls in China as the dragon nation reports the third day of declining daily infections after refreshing the record top.

Even so, a recent increase in the US inflation expectations, as per the 10-year and 5-year breakeven inflation rates per the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) data, should have also probed the USD/IDR downside. Additionally pleasing the USD/IDR bears could be the downbeat comments from US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan suggesting fresh challenges for the Sino-American optimists. The diplomat said, “The US sees China as a growing strategic threat.”

Moving on, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, namely US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for October, expected 5.0% YoY versus 5.1% prior. Additionally important will be the monthly prints of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for November, expected 49.8 versus 50.2 prior, as well as headlines surrounding China and comments from the Fed policymakers.

A clear downside break of three-month-old ascending support line, now resistance near $15,660, favors the USD/IDR bears targeting the monthly low near $15,310.

Technical Levels: Supports and Resistances

USDIDR currently trading at 15631.65 at the time of writing. Pair opened at 15644.8 and is trading with a change of -0.08% % .

The pair is trading below its 20 Daily moving average @ 15648.655, above its 50 Daily moving average @ 15490.627 , above its 100 Daily moving average @ 15191.5575 and above its 200 Daily moving average @ 14868.7803

The previous day high was 15749.0 while the previous day low was 15639.7. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 15681.4526, expected to provide resistance. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 15707.2474, expected to provide resistance.

Note the levels of interest below:

• Pivot support is noted at 15606.6667, 15568.5333, 15497.3667
• Pivot resistance is noted at 15715.9667, 15787.1333, 15825.2667

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