Fed Minutes Preview: Three things to watch out for – Scotiabank

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Analysts at Scotiabank enlist three critical things to watch for in the US Federal Reserve’s November meeting minutes that will be published on Wednesday at 1900 GMT.

Also read: FOMC Meeting Minutes Preview: Three reasons to expect a US Dollar downer

“Watch for three things:

The discussion that bolsters Powell’s guidance that the terminal rate estimates are likely to be revised higher in December’s ‘dot plot’ compared to September and the range of opinions around the issue using the Fed’s frequency of citations language (one, a couple, a few, some, several, many, most, all etc).”

“Also watch for the frequency of opinions around timing the downshifting in the pace of rate hikes after Powell said “that timing is coming and it may come as soon as the next meeting or the one after it.” Markets are priced for a downshift to 50bps in December and could be vulnerable to any indications that the FOMC is still considering a larger move.”

“Finally, expect further rejection of pausing the tightening stance given Powell’s guidance that is “very premature.”

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