#XAUUSD @ 1,759.27 Gold price remains set to snap two-week uptrend, pressured of late., @nehcap view: Further weakness expected (Pivot Orderbook analysis)

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• Gold price remains set to snap two-week uptrend, pressured of late.
• Federal Reserve talks, Russia-Ukraine tussles and Covid woes underpin US Dollar demand.
• Data from United States came in softer but failed to weigh on the greenback.
• Light calendar needs XAUUSD traders to rely on risk catalysts for fresh impulse.

The pair currently trades last at 1759.27.

The previous day high was 1785.09 while the previous day low was 1770.41. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 1776.02, expected to provide resistance. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 1779.48, expected to provide resistance.

Gold price (XAUUSD) stays bearish around $1,760, after a two-day downtrend, as sellers cheer the US Dollar’s rebound despite softer economics from the United States. In doing so, the precious metal bears observe the recently hawkish comments from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, as well as the risk-negative catalysts, while bracing for the first weekly loss in three.

Although the latest second-tier data from the United States came in mixed, mostly softer, the Federal Reserve policymakers’ resistance to reiterate the statements favoring the 50 bps rate hike in December favored the US Dollar and triggered the recent sell-off in the Gold price.

“US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy is not yet in a range estimated to be sufficiently restrictive to reduce inflation,” St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said on Thursday.

On the same line were the latest comments from Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari. “with inflation still high but a lot of monetary policy tightening already in the pipeline, it’s unclear how high the US central bank will need to raise its policy rate,” said Fed’s Kashkari.

Talking about Thursday’s data from the United States, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index fell to -19.4 versus -6.2 market forecasts and -8.7 prior. Further, Housing Starts declined by 4.2% MoM in October following September’s 1.3% contraction whereas Building Permits fell by 2.4%, compared to a 1.4% increase recorded in the previous month. Additionally, the Jobless Claims eased to 222K for the week ended on November 11 versus 225K expected and upwardly revised 226K prior.

It’s worth noting that the previously released United States Retail Sales and Producer Price Index (PPI) for October could be linked to the Fed officials’ hawkish comments as both of them offered a positive surprise.

Market’s fears also highlighted the US Dollar’s safe-haven demand and weighed on the Gold price. Among the major ones was the fresh tension between Russia and Ukraine due to missile strikes on Poland, as well as the increasing Covid counts in China.

Recently, Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy rejected the blames for the missile strike that hit a Polish city and killed two people. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) believes Russia was responsible even if the initial findings suggested that the missile likely coming from Ukraine’s defense.

On the other hand, China’s Coronavirus numbers reach more than a year’s high but the Dragon Nation eased a few of the virus-led activity controls. As a result, markets are worried about a fresh, as well as fierce, wave of the disease that drowned the global economy in the last two years. It’s worth noting that China is among the world’s top Gold consumers and hence and negatives from it should weigh on the XAUUSD prices.

Given the lack of major data/events, the Gold price could extend the latest weakness unless risk appetite improves notably, which is less likely. That said, the market’s recent risk-aversion could be witnessed via downbeat prints of Wall Street, despite the late rebound, as well as a recovery in the US Treasury yields.

A clear downside break of a two-week-old ascending trend line joins the RSI retreat from the overbought territory to keep Gold sellers hopeful of the precious metal’s further decline. Adding strength to the bearish bias could be the quote’s U-turn from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the June-September downturn.

That said, a 50% Fibonacci retracement level surrounding $1,746 and tops marked during September and October around $1,730 could restrict immediate downside.

However, a convergence of the 100-DMA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, around $1,715-13, could restrict the Gold price downside afterward.

Meanwhile, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the aforementioned support line, now resistance, could restrict short-term recovery of the yellow metal around $1,779 and $1,786 in that order.

Above all, a horizontal area comprising the 200-DMA and multiple levels marked since May, near $1,805-08, appears a tough nut to crack for the Gold bulls.

Overall, the Gold price returns to the bear’s table after a fortnight holiday.

Trend: Further weakness expected

Technical Levels: Supports and Resistances

XAUUSD currently trading at 1760.44 at the time of writing. Pair opened at 1774.32 and is trading with a change of -0.78% % .

The pair is trading above its 20 Daily moving average @ 1686.4, above its 50 Daily moving average @ 1679.63 , above its 100 Daily moving average @ 1713.68 and below its 200 Daily moving average @ 1802.83

The previous day high was 1785.09 while the previous day low was 1770.41. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 1776.02, expected to provide resistance. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 1779.48, expected to provide resistance.

Note the levels of interest below:

• Pivot support is noted at 1768.12, 1761.93, 1753.44
• Pivot resistance is noted at 1782.8, 1791.29, 1797.48

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