Japan: GDP figures surprised to the downside in Q3 – UOB
…
This is a premium post.
[s2If !current_user_can(access_s2member_level4)]Please register for PREMIUM VERSION HERE to read full post below containing analysis. In case of any error or you think you are not able to read the full post below, please email us at support#nehcap.com [lwa][/s2If] [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level4)]
UOB Group’s Senior Economist Alvin Liew comments on the latest GDP figures in Japan.
“Japan’s 3Q 2022 GDP unexpectedly contracted by -0.3% q/q, -1.2% q/q SAAR (versus Bloomberg est: 0.3% q/q, 1.2% q/q SAAR, and UOB’s est 2.1% q/q SAAR) while the growth in 2Q was revised higher to 1.1% q/q, 4.6% q/q SAAR.”
“We were surprised by the q/q contraction in 3Q as we underestimated the impact of stronger inflation, the wave of COVID-19 infections in summer and a significant weakening of the yen that amplified the country’s already ballooning import bill. Both private consumption and business spending expanded in 3Q but at a slower pace from 2Q, while the main drags were net external demand and to a lesser extent, private inventories and residential investments.”
“Japan GDP Outlook – We expect GDP to rebound on a sequential basis in 4Q (by 0.7% q/q, 2.8% q/q SAAR) as the economy could find support from a surge in inbound tourism and from the latest economic stimulus package from the Kishida administration. With a 0.7% q/q rebound projected for 4Q, we keep our full-year 2022 GDP growth forecast unchanged at 1.5% (easing from 1.6% in 2021), and remain soft at 1.0% for 2023, due to the waning external demand and uncertainties which include 1) the on-going Russia-Ukraine conflict, 2) aggressive monetary policy tightening stance in the advanced economies, 3) geopolitical risks, and 4) COVID-19 risk of potential new variants.”
[/s2If]
Join Our Telegram Group
