US Consumer Price Index seen under 2.0% YoY by end-2023 – Morgan Stanley
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Analysts at Morgan Stanley predict that the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) to soften further, revising down their CPI forecast for 2023.
“US CPI is currently 7.7%Y, but we forecast it to be under 2.0%Y by the end of next year.”
“Morgan Stanely cited five reasons:
Global demand should be weaker;
Supply chains are showing much less stress;
Inventories look increasingly elevated, inviting discounting for core goods;
And risk in shelter prices is much more balanced; and base effects shift materially.”
“We think that the Fed pauses after a January rate hike at 4.625%.”
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