#EURUSD @ 1.00803 The euro rallies further to reach five-week highs at 1.0085. (Pivot Orderbook analysis)

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• The euro rallies further to reach five-week highs at 1.0085.
• Fed pivot expectations are hurting the USD.
• EUR/USD: Holding above 1.0000 the pair could reach 1.03 – Scotiabank.

The pair currently trades last at 1.00803.

The previous day high was 0.9977 while the previous day low was 0.9848. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 0.9928, expected to provide support. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 0.9897, expected to provide support.

The euro is performing a surprising recovery after having appreciated more than 3% on a four-day rally. The common currency has stretched higher on Wednesday’s US session, breaching the previous session top at 1.0050 to reach 1.0085.

The US dollar has been on the defensive over the last sessions weighed by market expectations of a certain softening on the Federal Reserve’s tightening path. A batch of downbeat US indicators has revived concerns that escalating interest rates are dampening growth.

A news report by the Wall Street Journal suggesting that Fed officials might be discussing how to communicate lower rate hikes in the months ahead has given further backing to that thesis. This new scenario is weighing on the USD, which has surged about 20% this year, buoyed by the Fed’s hawkish stance.

On the other end, the market awaits a second consecutive jumbo rate hike by the European Central Bank on Thursday. With inflation at record highs, the ECB a 0.75% rate hike is priced in, which has been fuelling demand for the common currency over the last few days.

Currency analysts at Scotiabank see risks skewed to the upside if the pair consolidates above 1.000: “Gains yesterday through key trend resistance off the Feb EUR high are holding and what was resistance now becomes key support (0.9935) (…) Note that parity (0.9998) is the 23.6% retracement of the 2022 EUR decline; holding parity suggests more gains towards 1.03 (38.2% retracement at 1.0284).”

Technical Levels: Supports and Resistances

EURUSD currently trading at 1.008 at the time of writing. Pair opened at 0.9965 and is trading with a change of 1.15 % .

The pair is trading above its 20 Daily moving average @ 0.9807, above its 50 Daily moving average @ 0.9895 , below its 100 Daily moving average @ 1.0101 and below its 200 Daily moving average @ 1.0524

The previous day high was 0.9977 while the previous day low was 0.9848. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 0.9928, expected to provide support. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 0.9897, expected to provide support.

Note the levels of interest below:

• Pivot support is noted at 0.9883, 0.9801, 0.9754
• Pivot resistance is noted at 1.0012, 1.0059, 1.014

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