#USDCAD @ 1.38704 The US dollar appreciates again on Friday and approaches 1.3800. (Pivot Orderbook analysis)

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• The US dollar appreciates again on Friday and approaches 1.3800.
• A mixed US Retail Sales report has been overlooked.
• USD/CAD seen appreciating beyond 1.4000 – TDS.

The pair currently trades last at 1.38704.

The previous day high was 1.3978 while the previous day low was 1.3707. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 1.381, expected to provide support. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 1.3874, expected to provide resistance.

The US dollar firmed up on Friday to retrace most of the previous day’s losses. The pair has reached a session high at 1.3875, after bouncing near 1.3700 earlier today, and is on track to close the week with a moderate advance.

The greenback has been little changed by the release of a mixed consumption report. Retail sales remained flat in September, against expectations of a 0.2% monthly increase, in a sign that higher food and energy prices might be starting to bite into the cash available for big-ticket purchases.

Consumption data, however, has also shown some positive aspects. The core retail sales (excluding automobiles) increased against expectations at a 0.1% pace.

Beyond that, the USD ends the week in a positive tone, following the strong US inflation figures seen on Thursday, which have boosted expectations for the fourth 0.75% rate hike at November’s monetary policy meeting.

Currency analysts at TD Securities see the CAD dropping further which might push the pair beyond 1.40: Even if the next phase of USD strength is not as linear as it has been for much of this year, there is a lot of negative idiosyncratic risk coming the CAD’s way with the debt servicing problem for households only in the early days (…) While we have forecast 1.40 into year-end, it is no ceiling and it could very easily get worse for the CAD.”

Technical Levels: Supports and Resistances

USDCAD currently trading at 1.387 at the time of writing. Pair opened at 1.3751 and is trading with a change of 0.87 % .

The pair remains strongly bullish on the daily timeframe. It trades above its 20 SMA @ 1.362, 50 SMA 1.3251, 100 SMA @ 1.3055 and 200 SMA @ 1.2876.

The previous day high was 1.3978 while the previous day low was 1.3707. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 1.381, expected to provide support. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 1.3874, expected to provide resistance.

Note the levels of interest below:

• Pivot support is noted at 1.3646, 1.3541, 1.3375
• Pivot resistance is noted at 1.3917, 1.4083, 1.4188

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